People can say "Oh no, they'll be in trouble if the cap goes down", but the cap has never gone down, even after the massive economic collapse in 2008. The last couple of seasons have been a little screwy because of the new CBA adjusting the players' share, but in regular year-to-year growth, the cap has gone up at least $2M per year except for 09-10, when it only went up $100,000. Some years, the cap has gone up over $6M from one season to the next. Between 05-06 and 08-09, the cap rose $17.7M.
Could the cap drop (or even remain steady) at some point in the next 8 years? Sure, it could. If that does happen, it will probably be after the cap has gone up $5M+ per year for three or four years before it, and will be followed by another couple of $3M+ increases in the years following it.
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Originally Posted by Arya Stark
The TV deal has zero impact on the season coming up. The TV deal will have an impact on the 2015-16 season and beyond.
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That's not true. The cap is calculated using both the past season's real dollars, and any known significant revenue that will be on the books for the following season (it can also be decreased if there will be a known significant drop in revenue).
The NHL starts receiving the money from Rogers next season, and the players will receive their share of that money next season. It doesn't make any sense for both sides to know that money will be available in a season, and that money will be used in calculating that season's HRR (and the players' share of that HRR), and not accounting for it in the cap.
For next season's cap, the player's chose to only use part of the known revenue from the Rogers deal because they wanted to lower their escrow payments. The cap could have been 70 or 71 million had they used all of the money from the Rogers deal.
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Originally Posted by GGG
This is less than Iggy got in the second year after the lockout when the cap was 39 or 42 and he signed is 5 yr 35 mil contract. Now that didn't work out that well for the rest of his contract but in terms of cap percentage he was higher.
Since those first 7 mil contracts early in the cap system the top players as a % of the cap have been taking less and less. The psychological barrier of 10 million and the cap cheater contracts pushed those numbers down.
Now that you can't cheat the cap this will be typical for top players to get 15% of the cap. And this should spread good players around the league a little more than right now.
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Exactly. The only reason we haven't seen a $10M cap hit previously is because teams started signing the ridiculous long-term back-diving deals. If you took just the first 8 years of some of those deals, we would have crossed the $10M barrier at least two years ago.
In 2005-06, Iginla's $7M contract was 17.9% of the $39M cap. If the cap goes up to a conservative $73M for 2015-16, Toews and Kane's deals will be 14.4% of the cap, and if it goes up to $75M, their deals will be 14% of the cap.