I believe if the Flames had given him a qualifying offer and he had filed for arbitration, he could not receive less than his QO from the arbitrator. In Byron's case, his QO would have been $707,850 (on a two-way deal). I don't think the arbitrator can decide to award just a one-way deal if the player was eligible for a two-way QO.
Last season, Byron had 21 points in 47 games, and has a total of 81 NHL games experience. He is currently 25 years-old.
I haven't dug too hard, but here are a couple of players who seem like they would have been good arbitration comparables from Byron's perspective:
- Nick Spaling signed a one-year deal in 2013 for $1.5M. He was 24, but only about 6 months younger than Byron is now. He had played in 226 NHL games prior to signing the contract.
- Darren Helm signed a four-year deal in 2012 for an AAV of $2.125M. He was 25 years-old. He had 28 points in 68 games the year before he signed his contract. He had 248 NHL games experience when he signed.
All three of them have similar ES ice time, and each gets some PK time and very little PP time. The only significant difference between where Byron is now and where Spaling and Helm were when they signed their deals is the number of games of NHL experience.
Looking at those two contracts as possible comparables, I can understand why the Flames might have been worried that an arbitrator could have given Byron a contract they might not have liked.