[Jay Random]

For perspective:

Gaudreau's NHLE in his draft year (Dubuque Fighting Saints, USHL, 60 gp, 36-36-72): 26.5 pts.

Gaudreau's NHLE the year after (Boston College, 44 gp, 21-23-44): 33.6 pts.

These numbers suggest a talented player, but hardly a can't-miss prospect, which (along with his size) is why he was drafted in the fourth round. But then he exploded. His development over his last two years in college was phenomenal.

The thing to remember about NHLE is that how accurate it is depends a good deal on the player's age. Younger players (because they are still developing) tend to over-perform their NHLE, older players tend to under-perform.

Crosby jumped from junior to the NHL at 18, where the majority of players do so at 20. He could be expected to exceed his NHLE by a wide margin, and he did.

Gaudreau is coming over at 21, which is not unusual for college players, but still a bit on the young side – a lot of guys finish their degrees and turn pro at 22 or even 23. He's a bit of a long shot to score more than his NHLE as a rookie, but his NHLE is so high that he will still be a star player if he just lives up to it.

I believe the Flames' brass will try their hardest to pin Gaudreau down in the minors, but he may do so well in camp that they have to keep him up. If they do send him down, I expect him to put up numbers that make the AHL look silly, and get called up no later than New Year's. Basically, the same thing that happened to Theo Fleury when he started the '88-89 season in the IHL.