Quote:
Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf
Anaheim's shooting % last year as a team was 10.7% in 5 on 5 play
the next highest in the league was a full 2% lower
the year before the shot 9.2%, the year before they shot 8.6%
if their % next year drops towards average (and history shows there's a good chance it will) they lose between 30 and 40 goals
so ya, a bit lucky last year
I also didn't say they would catch Anaheim, I never said the Canucks were a great team, I just said there's no great team in the Pacific besides LA
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I love when people quote regression stats.
Where to start?...
Anaheim is a good team. They weren't 'lucky'. There were reasons - valid reasons - why they led the league in goals scored last year. Will they lead the league again this year? Maybe not.
Will they score fewer goals? Maybe. Will their shooting percentage go down? Maybe. But maybe that will be because they take more shots (they were 8th in the league last year.
Or maybe they will focus more on defense and improve their goals against this year - certainly Kesler should help in that regard? If their GA and GF both drop, no problem.
Hoping for regression to the mean is hilarious because most people really don't understand it. They tend to look at the stat in isolation, when in fact there are a myriad of ways that the regression can take place. Also, there is no predicting WHEN the regression will occur.
The bottom line here is that Anaheim is a very good team and by pretty much all accounts, they have improved this summer.