Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
If we have 256 coin flippers flip a coin 8 times and try to get heads and get a binomial distribution you woukd have 1 flipper with 8 heads and 1 with 8 tails.
Is that one coin flipper really good or just lucky. The draft could be the same way. All scouts are roughly equally good so their performance relative to eachother may be random.
One area that is random is picking stocks. No one year over year picking stocks can consistantly outperform random chance.
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One needs to be careful about the conclusions they come to. It is completely conceivable that someone
could in fact consistently beat the stock market.
What the statistics are telling us is that we can't
distinguish between luck and skill. That doesn't preclude skill from existing, just that we don't have enough information to tell.
The same is true with the draft. Detroit may in fact draft better than Edmonton. The problem is that we will never acquire enough information to be reasonably confident that it is skill and not luck.
(and by the time enough info was gathered, the management would have all changed and the info would be irrelevant anyway)
sorry to derail the thread