I posted this not too long ago on the "Boomer rumour" thread but it is probably more relevant here.
I have been tracking mock drafts this year. For my own keeper league hockey pool purposes where I happen to own the 4th pick and because I am really excited about Flames hockey again and have been putting far too much of my time into thinking about who they should take at 4.
I have looked far and wide for mocks and included many, even some I’ve seen on the Hockey’s Future boards and other websites where the quality of commentary ranges dramatically. My qualifications are firstly, that picks have to be justified intelligently (i.e. picking Ritchie and saying “truculence!” isn’t enough). Secondly I eliminated any drafts that can be accused of homerism such as a Canadien’s fan who foresaw Ehlers falling to 26th and Demko still available at Montreal’s 2nd round selection. Thirdly I accepted very, very few of the drafts that had user-generated trades because of all the difficulties associated with that. They only account for 3 total votes. Finally, I have given the more established mock drafters, such as Bob McKenzie, ISS, Pronman etc double votes to balance out the weight of the amateurs. So Mckenzie’s choice of Draisaitl going to the Flames lead to 2 votes being entered into the spreadsheet while any list from a lesser known or unknown would get 1 vote. Not foolproof and not really scientific but I tried to make it somewhat defensible.
Below are the stats for the Flames pick up to 10 pm MST this morning. The first total is the overall number. Then the stats are divided into pre-and post-Draft Combine or pull-upgate as it is now better known.
All numbers are expressed in terms of percentage. Fifty-four percent of the votes were recorded before and during the combine, forty-six percent afterwards.
Overall
Sam Bennett 40.00%
Leon Draisaitl 18.37%
Sam Reinhart 16.73%
Michael Dal Colle 13.06%
Nick Ritchie 4.49%
William Nylander 3.67%
Jake Virtanen 1.63%
Nikolaj Ehlers 1.22%
Aaron Ekblad 0.83%
Pre-Combine
Sam Bennett 38.30%
Leon Draisaitl 19.15%
Michael Dal Colle 15.60%
Sam Reinhart 14.18%
William Nylander 5.67%
Nick Ritchie 3.55%
Jake Virtanen 2.84%
Aaron Ekblad 0.71%
Post-Combine
Sam Bennett 42.31%
Sam Reinhart 20.39%
Leon Draisaitl 17.31%
Michael Dal Colle 9.62%
Nick Ritchie 5.77%
Nikolaj Ehlers 2.88%
Aaron Ekblad 0.97%
William Nylander 0.97%
The Obvious:
A very insignificant number of mock drafters (0.83%) think Ekblad will sethjones his way down to the 4th pick.
Bennett is clearly the player most expected to go at 4 (both pre- and post-Combine) but yet not by anything approaching half of the drafters.
Risers and Fallers:
Dal Colle, Nylander and Virtanen have seen their pre-Combine numbers drop significantly with Reinhart and Bennett picking up their votes.
While Virtanen did not have many votes before the Combine he has had none since.
Reinhart has, in the last few days, been picked often at 4. Approximately 65% of the time. Three days ago he was behind Dal Colle in the overall but blew by him and is gaining rapidly on Draisaitl for 2nd place.
Bennett saw a big jump immediately after pull-upgate as many seemed to see him as the fourth of the big 4 for a about a week.
Draisaitl’s numbers have been very consistent around 18% of drafters
Ritchie has not had a significant boost despite all the talk about him of late.
Ehlers got no votes before the combine but got a few after
Conclusion:
The Flames will draft someone, possibly Sam Bennett.
Not very helpful I know, but it does put some numbers to the conversation such as there is a 75.1% chance we get a centre.
Perhaps you see something else in them
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