I did a review of the drafts from 1999 through 2008 (10-years). I ranked players using the following criteria:
- Elite: Top end player like Kane, Crosby, or Toews
- Top: A player that will play top 4D, is a starting goalie, or would be a top 6F on a playoff team
- Support: An NHL player that doesn't meet the above criteria
- Bust: A player that didn't have a meaningful NHL career.
This is what I found:
Notes:
- There isn't a drop off in success between players selected fourth overall and fifth overall (in fact, the number goes up. Possibly because teams aren't so stuck on taking the "safe" pick)
- Only 10% of players ended up as elite players (Backstrom in 2006)
- This draft is notable for a lack of dynamic talent. This has been noted by NHL heavy weights like Bob MacKenzie.
So my points are this:
- Why not draft Ritchie? He fills more needs than any other player than Ekblad and he potentially has a higher ceiling (potentially) than any other prospect in range.
- Don't be scared to trade the pick if its going to get you a top NHL talent in the right age demographic.
- Stop expecting prospects like Baertschi, Monahan, and whomever we draft to be elite players. Especially out of the gate. They are rare outside of the top 2 picks.
- Stop talking about trading Giordano for another top 10 pick. Especially in this draft. Chances are the drafted player isn't going to be anywhere near as good as Giordano is.