Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
We're looking to have another top 5-10 pick. You shouldn't be looking at the entire first round then but at the odds of getting a player better than O'Reilly near the top end of the draft. The top end of next years draft actually looks better than 2003. Why 2003 is so touted was the depth but it didn't actually have a McDavid/Eichel type at the top end. So 2015 is supposed to both be deep but also have a nice top end. So you could be missing out on a potential superstar or at worst a likely foundational piece.
Here's the RFA compensation list:
Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781: 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick
Over $6,728,781 To $8,410,976: Two 1st’s, one 2nd, one 3rd round pick
I like O'Reiily a lot. But in order to get them to not match we'd probably have to offer long term in the 7 million range. That means giving up two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd. Your analysis isn't taking that into account at all. Heck the Avs got O'Reilly in the 2nd. You wanna give up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd OR MORE in a deep draft? Good lord.
It's pretty much a no brainer that given our potential draft position next year that giving up even a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for O'Reilly is overpayment. It made some sense back when we had Iginla and it was only a 1st and a 3rd but it doesn't make any sense at all now.
The idea doesn't merit any serious consideration IMO. Too many picks in a deep year where we're expected to have high picks in every round.
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Thanks for responding with something more than "no". I will more than happily admit that my little numbers game was very rudimentary, I just wanted to illustrate that our pick next year is not a sure thing. I still feel like it's heavily overvalued unless of course we're right back in the same range again, so the more difficult bridge to gap depends on how badly you think the Flames will do next season.
I would think the issue for Colorado would be term as opposed to dollars and I agree that pushing it to two first round picks would make this unbalanced and I would not want to see that under any circumstances. I would hope that if the move were to be presented, it would not exceed the 6.7m cap hit.
I am not advocating this move, but I would understand if management did it and I'm looking at it purely from how they would see it. Management truly believe (and they have to) that they will improve on the performance of last year and that being the case they wouldn't see the pick holding nearly as much value because they are banking on themselves to improve.