Yes, you will receive the discount for water not being available upon check in. So ironically it's cheaper to check in than to no-show.
As for downgrading; the problem is that if it shows as full, there isn't anything for them to downgrade you to. Yes, with the weather there will be no-shows; but they cannot give away a spot. Some people may be arriving late and may have reserved a specific site for a preference or to be close to friends.
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