Draft combine results are only a small window into a prospect's story. You have to look at the results, scout them thoroughly on the ice for at least a season, and you also have to look at the player's frame and muscle-build. You have to see who is the 'man amongst boys' and who still has a lot of room for growth.
Let's take a look at some prospects this draft, and past drafts.
Gaudreau, Grimaldi, McNeil, Ritchie and Bennett.
Gaudreau - we are all familiar with. At the draft, he was apparently 5'5" and 135lbs or something. Tiny kid with exceptional skill. When you look at his frame, he was very under-developed. Without question, he was a 'boy'. In his NCAA career, he has always been a 'boy amongst men', but he has learned to be highly effective. While there is no guarantee that he will be effective in the NHL (though I do think he will be), he does have 'room to grow' (not in height, but in his ability to gain some muscle and enhance his frame).
Grimaldi - same draft class as Gaudreau. Was only 1 inch taller. However, he already had a far superior build (170lbs I believe). Though he was under-sized, he was already a 'man amongst boys'. Part of his success was his physical ability to fight through checks and get puck possession. Compare his NCAA record against that of Gaudreau, and it pales in comparison. I think Grimaldi will be a tweener in the NHL at most, though this is just a guess on my part. Exceptional skill, but he has 'learned' to use his physical abilities and advantage (probably a very strong player relative to his age group), and this advantage will diminish in the NHL (and I will argue that it has already diminished greatly in the NCAA). Grimaldi was by far the 'superior prospect' when compared to Gaudreau, but who in this league would trade away Gaudreau straight-up for Grimaldi now? You have to keep an eye out for those 'early bloomers' who peak relatively early physically (though it isn't to say that Grimaldi doesn't have additional room for growth, just less so than some most at that age).
McNeil - he was considered to be one of the more impressive builds in the 2011 draft class. Was the proverbial 'man amongst boys'. Decent skill-set. However, how much of his success in the CHL was due in large measure of his over-developed physical frame as compared to the rest of his peers? I think his skill-set is below that of a top 6 projection, but his stats were probably above average for a top 6 projection. Again, reliance on his advantage of having more strength and muscle mass for speed and puck-battles.
Ritchie - the prospect many posters 'dread' the Flames picking this year. One of the biggest concerns I have read on these forums by posters is that they feel his success comes from the fact that he is 'bigger' than anyone else in the CHL and it won't translate well in the NHL. I counter with the fact that Ritchie's build is actually quite underdeveloped. He will get bigger and much stronger, and in his career (if he does indeed make the NHL) will be one of a power-forward that is extremely difficult to handle. He already has great agility, fairly good speed, and he has a tremendous amount of skill. He is NOT an 'over-sized' player that dominates because everyone else is a boy and he is a man. He essentially has an underdeveloped body with a very large frame, and one can expect as he trains in the next few years at a professional level, his size and strength advantage will continue to be an advantage.
Bennett - I don't know about you guys, but he almost screams Gaudreau to me. The fact that he did relatively poorly (and the 'embarrassing' overblown pull-up bit) at the combine makes me think this kid may in fact end up being the best in the draft. Why? A kid with this little frame is so tenacious that he simply out-competes other larger and stronger players regularly, and still has that high-end skill-set. I would expect that a few years of training professionally he will only become better. He has lots of room to grow, and when he does, he will be that much more effective.
It is difficult to look at the combine results and say: "This kid did poorly, so he won't translate." You have to look at the frame, and you have to look at the 'size' the kid has on that frame before you make any sort of valid projection. You can't simply look at one piece of the puzzle and definitively say one way or the other - you have to look at the entire story to be able to more accurately gauge a prospect's projection in the NHL (and even then, there are exceptions - both surprises and disappointments).
These are things that I have been noticing anyways. I actually really hoped the Flames would draft Grimaldi, but I am very glad that they didn't.
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