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Old 05-24-2014, 09:05 PM   #1
sureLoss
Some kinda newsbreaker!
 
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Learning Phaneufs skating style
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Flames Prognosticating which of the "top 4" will be available at #4

Apologies for another 4th overall thread.

Had some free time and wrote a spreadsheet model that will calculate the probability Ekblad, Bennett, Draisaitl and Reinhart will be available to the Flames based on what a person believes the probabilities Florida, Buffalo and Edmonton will pick those 4 or another prospect.

Screenshot:


In the above screenshot I entered (blue text) the probabilities I thought Florida, Buffalo and Edmonton would pick the top 4 prospects if all 4 were available to each of those teams, and the model then calculated the chances the players would still be available at Calgary's pick in row 5.

Don't agree with the probabilities? Well you can play around with them here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

To prevent anyone from screwing up the spreadsheet, I disabled editing, however you can Save a copy to your Google account (sign in to google first) that allows editing by File->Make a Copy... or get an Excel compatible file on your computer by File->Download as->Microsoft Excel (note that these commands are not done via your web browser's menus but through Google's spreadsheet menus).

There are some instructions and notes about the model in the spreadsheet.

I have tested the model against a simple draft simulator I wrote, so I am fairly confident that the model is accurate.

Let me know if you have any questions or bugs to report.
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