I think Ekblad is getting too much scrutiny.
I have always preferred Reinhart over Ekblad. It is a combination of factors.
1) Franchise centers are extremely difficult to either acquire in trades or FA signings, and to draft outside of the top 10. Franchise defencemen have been taken much more frequently outside the top 10 (especially outside the lottery realm - 1-5 picks).
2) I think Reinhart is more likely to achieve 'elite' status over Ekblad. Maybe Bennett and Draisaitl can be added to that list over Ekblad. I would bet that at least one of Ehlers, Nylander, Ritchie, Dal Colle and Kapanen become what are considered 'elite' as well (maybe more than 1 of them).
With that being said, I do think that Ekblad's development has to go off the rails for any team - and I mean ALL 30 teams - not to want him in their organization. He may never become a #1 defencemen (I personally don't think so, but I also think there is a legitimate chance that he does develop into one). He may be an 'ok' #2, or even more of a #3/4 defencemen for most of his career. However, he is going to be a guy you can throw out there at any stage in the game (pk, pp, 5v5, last minute of the game holding a lead or trying to tie it) and will be a very good defencemen.
Is he worth a #1 selection? If the Flames were choosing 1st, I would not want them to choose Ekblad. If he is available at #4 and at least Reinhart is gone, then I would hope the Flames choose him. He may not ever be elite, but I would put money on him becoming a very important cog on any team.
I look at the draft in this way:
You build most of your team through the draft. Trades and FA signings are more to 'fill holes' than to really build a team up. Darry Sutter did about as good a job at building a team as can possibly be accomplished through trades, and it wasn't enough. What are the most expensive and difficult holes to fill? Franchise-level players. Center - Defence - Wingers, all in that order.
Elite centers are RARELY ever traded, and rarely ever go to UFA. They are very expensive to trade for. Defenders are next - they are more frequently traded and they more frequently go to UFA, but they are still expensive to acquire. Wingers come to market often, though the 'Franchise' level ones are still fairly expensive.
A team needs to draft as much 'expensive talent' possible through the drafts. You can trade an elite-level centermen or defencemen if you are lucky enough to have an excess, and in so doing you can plug a few holes to complete your team and challenge. I would hope the Flames draft as many elite-level types as possible.
This is why I have always wanted Reinhart over Ekblad - I simply think that Reinhart is more likely (not guaranteed to either achieve it, or achieve it over Ekblad, but just more likely) to become a 'franchise level expensive asset' than Ekblad is. This is not to say that Ekblad isn't a good pick for 1st overall - he may indeed end up becoming the very best asset in the entire draft.
I think at this point, Ekblad is getting over-scrutinized. I think he is not at the same level as Jones, but Reinhart, Bennett and Draisaitl are probably not at the same level as MacKinnon and Barkov either.
I was still surprised when Colorado passed on Jones, but wasn't shocked. Was a bit more surprised when Florida took Barkov over Jones - though not shocked still. I was shocked when Tampa took Drouin over Jones.
I will be shocked if Ekblad falls to 5th. I will be pleasantly surprised if he is available at 4 (and as long as Reinhart is taken, will be more than happy for the Flames to snatch him up - I still think he is going to be a very valuable piece).
I will also not be terribly upset if they pass on him as there really are other players that could potentially have the 'elite' label attached to them in the course of their careers. The prospects this year are just so different amongst themselves, but many have 'elite' traits to their games that if they develop positively, this draft may be looked back as a very good one.
Starting with Dal Colle - great speed, elite vision and an elite shot. Ehlers - extremely fast, and a high-end skill set who does basically everything at such a high-level with speed. Nylander - he is the most offensively gifted prospect this draft (though I still say Reinhart can be, but plays such a mature 2-way game that his numbers suffer a bit, though his numbers are still at the 'elite level' for his age). Ritchie - I find it funny that people are so against this kid (too much negativity from drafting the 'big unskilled prospects' of yesteryear?). This kid has great speed, an elite shot, great vision, and will be able to knock down almost any defencemen in the NHL - kids like this do not come around often in the draft! Even Kapanen has the ability to become an elite-level 2-way player like Bergeron is - kid is fast, and plays a very good 2-way game (just a notch below Reinhart offensively and defensively).
I have just relegated myself to knowing that the Flames are going to make the very best selection out of whomever is available at #4, and that player will become a very important piece for the future, with the potential to become elite. I will be upset for about 3 seconds if they pass on Reinhart if he is available (as that is my personal preference), but I respect how the Flames have been drafting (including Jankowski), and feel they will end up taking someone who has the chance to become something special. I also have the confidence in their development program to help that prospect achieve that level if possible, as well as a coach like Hartley who knows how much to coddle a prospect, how much to shelter one, and also how much to push a prospect.
I just can't wait to see who it is!
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