Breakeven prices and opex aren't really good barometers of oil price impact on the Alberta / Calgary economy. What's drives the economy is investment in future projects. New development hires and employs a lot more people than operating. Ideally a healthy oil patch economy has growing operations and new development spending to keep people working. Oil prices on the margin are what drives this spending. So if the forward strip pricing moves up, company's might anticipate new wells and new projects being more profitable and it will likely lead to increased spending, the opposite is true for lower prices.
If oil prices dropped into the 70s on an on-going basis it very well could lead to a local recession despite much lower break-even costs on existing producing assets. Reason being is new projects being delayed or cancelled and the ensuring layoffs of the many layers of people involved in new development.
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