There are several phases in the team-building life-cycle, and they have to be defined in order to answer this question. I would suggest they would something like this:
Rebuilding - this is the process of swapping out older, bigger-contract players for younger, rawer assets with potential. Essentially, it is a stripping down and refurbishing of the NHL roster and prospect base. Value comes from a player's potential rather than his ability to produce now. Free agents are left to others and a premium is placed on the draft. Playoffs are not an expectation. The Flames are clearly in this phase, the Canucks seem to be entering it.
Growth - this is the phase where you allow the assets acquired in the Rebuilding phase to ripen. They grow and your team grows with them. You begin to allow the acquiring of assets through means such as free agent signings (UFA, RFA) as well as continuing to draft and develop effectively. Playoffs become a viable goal, but is not necessarily achieved. I would argue the Oilers are in this phase, but their execution is, well, no good. Other teams like the Stars and Islanders are in this phase, the Hurricanes seem to be perpetually in this phase.
Prime Core - the core of the building roster is now entering their prime, ie, 24 to 31. The roster must be supplemented by mature journeymen rather than raw rookies, because the goal is not just making the playoffs, but to win in the playoffs. Draft picks become carrots to dangle to add more mature talent to push the team to the next phase. Teams like Phoenix, Montreal, Anaheim, perhaps St. Louis are in this phase.
Contender - The core of the roster is mid to late in their prime, draft picks are used as trade bait, especially at the deadline. Expectations are Cup or bust. Teams like Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh are here. This is where the Flames were trying to be 2007 to 2012, but just couldn't get over the hump. This is the dangerous phase where if the GM is reckless with draft picks and the roster is not supplemented by youth over time, you will find your team in the next phase....
Non-Intellectual Honesty - This is the phase where the core of the team is grinding its way out of their prime, youth is not supplanting the aging core, and yet the goal remains the Stanley Cup. Of course, with players that are older, probably slower, and less able to keep up with the physicality, you cannot win the Cup. But you sacrifice draft picks anyway, only to find yourself just missing the playoffs or losing in the first round. If you stay in this phase too long, your assets get harder and harder to replenish. And that's when you find yourself back at the beginning, in the Rebuilding phase. But only after you have achieved Intellectual Honesty.
So based on this lifecycle, I would say the Flames have already entered the late stages of Rebuilding. The roster has been almost completely turned over from the Iginla era. Depending on how many young players join the NHL roster this fall, the playoffs could be in their sights as early as next year. I don't think you would know that until you saw how the team gels early next season. So from management's perspective, they have to view this off-season as a continuation of the rebuilding phase. Perhaps mid-season that can re-evaluated, and certainly by next spring.
I think it is very plain to see that these phases exist, it's just not obvious when a team is graduating from one to the next. It happens right in front of your eyes on the ice. This team could easily make that transition to the Growth phase this coming year. But clearly from this thread, most fans are expecting it to take a bit (or a lot) longer. But I wouldn't say the "rebuild" is over when the team wins a Cup. The team is nearly "rebuilt" already. They will soon need to grow.
|