[Monahan23]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

This is an interesting draft for the Flames.

The propaganda from Edmonton wanting Draisaitl and Florida looking for offers for the #1 seems to me to open up the possibility that Ekblad may be available when the Flames pick at #4.

Should they take Ekblad if they have a chance?

They have the least expectation and longest time frame for drafting a player that doesn't have an immediate impact out of the bottom 4 teams.

The Flames will have Gaudreau as a rookie next season if not Granlund and/or Baertschi and/or Max Reinhart and/or Poirier and or McKnight. The roster will not be as wide open for the either of the Sams or Draisaitl to step in like Monahan.

I would like the Flames to draft Ekbad with the expectation that he goes back to Juniors for 2014-15 and makes the Flames as 4/5 in 2015-16 and is 1/2 in 2015-16.

There is a better chance that any one of the forwards will make an impact sooner but right now the Flames have numerous prospects that have the potential of being top 6 players in 2015-16 and basically Brodie (and Gio) in line to be top 2 Or even strong top 4 in 2015-16…. Smid and/or Wideman might fill in a top 4 spot on a good playoff team but the team would have a much more realistic chance with them as 4/5.

It is really hard to get that commodity without drafting in the top 4. Even with a top 10 pick the odds fall off rather dramatically.

This year or possibly next is the Flames chance to fill this need.

In the last 6 drafts there have been 23 d-men chosen in the top 10 and only 9 picked in the top 4

Of the 9 picked in the top 4
Seth Jones (2013)
Ryan Murray (2012)
Griffin Reinhart (2012)
Adam Larson (2011)
Erik Gudbranson (2010)
Victor Hedman (2009)
Drew Doughty (2008)
Zach Bogosian (2008)
Alex Pietrangelo (2008)

Only 3 (Doughty, Pietroangelo and Hedman) have established themselves as clear cut #1 D-men. Using Pietrangelo’s 2 years of juniors after being drafted there is still a chance 3 (Jones, Murray and Reinhart) have a chance to be a clear cut #1 and the other 3 look like they might end up topping out at #3/4 as Larson and Gudbranson and Bogosian are running out of runway.

On the other 14 picked in the top 10 3 Trouba and Brodin and Oliver Ekman-Larsson are really close to that clear cut #1 status. . 7 are still developing and have a reasonable chance of being a clear cut #1 d-man…
Luke Schenn and Cowan seem to have topped out as #4

Two (Dylan McIlrath and Koekker) are giving all signs of being a bust.

Of the 23 top ten picks only 6 have contributed at the NHL level as a 19 year olds ( Doughty, Jones, Larson, Schenn, Bogosian, Ristolainen) 3 haven’t developed as fast or as high as anyone would have wanted and the data on Jones and Ristolainen is very thin.

Top 10 overall Defensemen pick over the last 6 years

2013

Seth Jones #1 D-man #4 overall... ( 20 minutes a game, -23 on non-playoff team)

Darnell Nurse #2 D-man #7 overall ( basically same sort of year in juniors that he had as an 18 year old)

Rasmus Ristolainen #3 D-man #8 overall (19 minutes a game in 34 games -15 for bottom team

2012

Ryan Murray #1 D-man #2 overall ( as a 19 year old basically same sort of year in juniors that he had as an 18 year old as 20 year old #4 D-man on playoff team)

Griffin Reinhart #2 d-man #4 overall ( as a 19 year old basically same sort of year in juniors that he had as an 18 year old maybe a bit worse as 20 year old better year as a junior)

Morgan Rielly #3 D-man #5 overall (back to Jr as 19 year old #5 d-man on Leafs as 20 year old)

Hampus Lindholm #4 D-man #6 overall (AHL as 19 year old , #4/5 with the Ducks as a 20 year old)

Mathew Dumba #5 D-man #7 overall (junior as a 19 year old, somehow got 13 games with the Wild as a 20 year old as 5/6 and then had a very strong Jr season)

Derrick Pouliot #6 D-man #8 overall (Jr as a 19 year old, dominate Junior as 20 year old)

Jacob Trouba #7 D-man #9 overall ( Freshman at Michigan as 19 year old and #1 D man on the Jets as a 20 year old. so far the best d-man picked in the 2012 draft)

Slater Koekkoek #8 D-man #10 0verall ( 2 more years of so-so Junior... drafted with only 26 games played in his draft year)

2011

Adam Larrson #1 d-man #4 overall (#5 D-man on good NJ team as an 19 year old and then as a 4/5 as a 20 year old and then a year with split seasons between AHL and the Devils as a 21 year old)

Dougie Hamilton #2 d-man #8 overall (Junior as 19 year old, 2 years as #5 D-man with Boston)

Jonas Brodin #3 D-man #10 overall ( a year in Sweden as 19 year old...straight to #2 with the Wild .. best D-man of the 2011 crop so far)

2010

Erik Gudbranson #1 D-man #3 overall (19 year old Jr., 5/6 with Florida as 20 year old and 2 more years as #4/5)

Dylan McIlrath #2 D-man #10 overall (19 and 20 year old Jr., then 2 years in the AHL)

The best d-man from 2010 was #3 d-man #12 overall Cam Fowler who jumped to the Ducks as a 19 year old and had 2 seasons of -25 and -28.

2009

Victor Hedman #1 D-man #2 overall (straight to Tampa as a 19 year old as 1/2 for 5 years) Best d-man drafted in 2009

Oliver Ekman-Larsson #2 D-man #6 overall ( 19 year old season in Sweden , 5/6 D-man with Phx as 20 year old and 1/2 since)

Jared Cowen #3 D-man #9 overall (19 year old and 20 year old season in Junior a year a 4/5, a year lost to injury and a year as 3/4)

2008

Drew Doughty #1 D-man #2 overall (Immediately became Kings #1 D-man was best D-man drafted)

Zach Bogosian #2 d-man #3 overall (#4/5 d-man with Atlanta as 19 year old , top 3 d-man since)

Alex Pietrangelo #3 d-man #4 overall (2 year back to juniors, #1 D-man with St.L since)

Luke Schenn #4 d-man #5 overall (#4 D-man with Leafs as 19 year old , bad years a 20 year old, then a year as top 4 and then 5/6 and then top 4 and then 5/6?????)

, so we should pass on Ekblad if available for Dal Colle or Ehlers or Ritchie,