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Old 05-16-2014, 07:27 PM   #1705
Rathji
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Supporting Urban Sprawl
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So, Baxter is Dr, allegedly. This isn't something he could ever prove though.

Out options are

a) He is telling the truth. He dies to night kill and we get confirmation. This is good because it forces mafia to play prisoners dilemma and maybe lose a kill. (also bad, see option d below)

b) He is telling the truth, and we lynch him. We lose townie and likely 2 more due to night kill. This is bad, but I don't know if it is the worst result

c) He is lying and we lynch him. That's a huge win for the town. Not only do we kill mafia with a lynch, but it gives us a ton of info.

d) He is lying and we don't lynch him. This is the worst result by far. He could claim that both mafia must have suspected that the other mafia would do the kill, so they picked other targets. We would have zero idea and given the mafia an extra day (potentially).

The only result that makes any sense for the town is one that we know for sure what happens and what he is.

I think that choice is c. Not only do we avoid any chance of something left undetermined afterwards, but the chances of him lying are much higher than he isn't lying (1 doctor left and 5 mafia) as I don't really see anything to indicate that he is the Dr other than his claim that he was running under the radar in the beginning to avoid being targeted by mafia.

Just a note: His claim that his strat was to stay out of sight would be an ideal one for the Dr though, as if I was playing Dr. that is exactly what I would be doing, no way you would want to be playing like me and potentially drawing fire from townies.
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