[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by starseed

Alright, I am going to make this quick and dirty because I don't have to worry about offending specific people who could target me in a night kill etc. I was frustrated when activeStick flipped town not only because he was town, but because he didn't leave behind a solid group of names with reasoning. Town flips can still be useful when they leave behind their list of suspects that we can use because we would know that they aren't mafia trying to direct us.

First I am going to look at the known flips, bizaro - Parker, devo - Barrow.

bizaro:

• lynched hmmhmmcamo, and agulati, then was killed by barrow
• advocated low post count targets (just looked up counts, devo and bizaro are around the middle, but that could be coincidence based on mafia targeting people based on post activity level?)
• Attacks rathji, then backs off and votes ineedanother
• unvotes after vig reveal, then encourages potential real vig to come out and kill ineedanother
• expressed support for following ineedanother
• posts a lot about CBL, not necessarily anything damning, but does bring him up a lot
• pushes agulati lynch when votes were going their way
• targets HD (could be proof parker targeted delgar, as he mentions it)
• points to GGG's suspects of Baxter, aS, strombad, Legoman
• joins CC in targeting Legoman
• tries to focus town into voting agulati when others were voting aS, Lego, baxter, tranny, CBL

devo:

• lynched hmmhmmcamo, and agulati, votes tranny while aS got lynched, then is killed by parker
• defends HG
• agrees with CC's reasoning in voting ineedanother, but doesnt vote
• expresses shock at ineedanother's reveal, frustration with coming out
• votes tranny after the reveal
• posts that he was going out for beers while setting hmmhmmcamo vote, then posts every couple of hours after that to check on the vote
• supports agulati push, targets tranny again
• votes agulati
• votes tranny when most others were targeting aS

So my guess from oling's list is:


Barrow Mafia kills:
Day 1: GP_Matt (targeting bold player, could have been targeting mafia as GPMatt was suspicious for advocating doc/cop reveal strategy, and appeared on ineedanother's list)
Day 2: bizaro86 (targeting strong player?)
Day 3: GGG (strong player targeting specific players, including me. Could have been attempt to target mafia with the bonus of casting suspicion if incorrect)

Parker Mafia kills:
Day 1: Delgar (targeting strong players from last game, casting suspicion on HD)
Day 2: dsavillian (targeting someone that aroused suspicions, possible mafia target)
Day 3: devo22 (mafia target)


As for current theories, tranny is probably town, definitely not barrow, but could be parker. Seems genuinely inactive initially.


I have twice suspected kermit, both when he joined Timbo in pressuring ineedanother, then again when he pushed away from the agulati vote. I thought Timbo and Kermit were working together, which turned out to be wrong. I thought the agulati drop off was an attempt to get people to jump off, but I was wrong. Kermit was pointed at with GGG by devo, so if he is mafia, he probably isn't barrow. If he flips mafia, I will go insane.



CC, he led the agulati vote (I followed after) then jumped off when it was a runaway vote, despite still saying that he suspected agulati. This seems like an attempt to not be put in the list of those who have always voted for the lynched townie. Also, he changed his vote to Legoman based on his crusade against completely. In lego's advocating a lynch of completely, he gave opportunity for a slight gotcha in the way he explained his rationale for completely. His reasoning is obviously completely bs, but CC pounced on it without hesitation despite the result from when he pounced on agulati. It could be that CC was waiting for a chance to defend completely while watching Legoman target his fellow mafia... but the completely suspicion is light, and only made stronger with a CC mafia flip.

As for GGG, I suspected him of being mafia in targeting me. There was a post I picked up on where he seemingly purposefully switched parker with barrow, which added to the mounting suspicions. When he started to back off, and didn't really receive backup from Oling, or anyone else, I started to have doubts again. I still don't understand why GGG would fight the vote block idea so hard core, but I guess this and bizaro's support of the idea is proof that it is flawed. The initial list was mostly duds, but I think that should be expected since it was a day one list. As days go on, the lists would get better, and we would start to have more success. We would also still have info to go on in who fought for which candidates.

I have been wrong a lot, but I don't think many others have been right in the first three days. However, I get the reasoning behind my lynching, so no hard feelings.

Anyways, I think I will make more direct responses in my defence, then go to bed before mother's day festivities.

For reasons stated:


vote: CaptainCrunch

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Lets be clear I voted for Agulati because his error made it pretty apparent that he was a mobster at the time or made a massive gaff. If you go back I think I even said that. I changed my vote to Legoman in that time and said it because he made that subtle string of statements where he basically either intentionally lied or intentionally mislead his reasons for trying to put focus on a player using a radom number theory. That to me in my mind is still the behavior of a mafia person who knows who's in his group and knows that it doesn't matter if he kills another mob faction member or a villager. He's just targeting and hopes it sticks He's even still targeting basically on a random little logical basis, and he vanishes and comes back.

If you look back on my posts, all I've done is target suspected mafia, none of my reasons are random at all, I've based it up on real hints

Agulati, look at his posts and defense and tell me that wasn't at the very least highly suspicious.

Look at my targeting lego man, his screams pretty blatent mafia targeting.

Was I wrong on Agulati, absolutely a lot of us were.

Was I wrong on other villager votes, absolutely, but I clearly wasn't the first one on the band wagon, and I looked at the arguments for and agreed with them.

I haven't made a random target in this game yet in this game and my logic is certainly pro mafia targeting.

I think your logic is flawed.

In fact, on the first day when the Vig was revealed, I wasn't leading the charge to blow off that power for haveanother to kill people to prove who he was.

On Day one, I voted Rathji who seemed pretty suspicious at the time.

Day two, I pointed out two posting flaws one on Legman and one on Agulati that were extremely mafia indicative.

Day 3 I didn't lead the argument for activestick, but I voted for him because the arguments were compelling that he was mafia and I agreed with them.

In fact, I'm still convinced that Legoman is playing us, I think out of a lot of suspects, his random target, his lie about Completely, his vanishing and coming back makes him a prime mob suspect, so even though you seem to be under a lot of suspicion and flailing a bit, I'm going with my continued instinct that Lego is dirty

Vote: Lego

Originally Posted by Crazy Bacon Legs

I believe the following people most likely to be mafia:


starseed
flameswin
Baxter Renegade

Hockeyguy15
CofR


I'm still missing one, but based on voting patterns and content of posts, that's what I'm going with. I am also far from 100% on these people. I may well be wrong on one of the people on the list.

I think it's also valuable to look at one or two people who are NOT voting with the lynch pack. I think there are bound to be one or two mafia who are sleepers that the groups are holding back so there's nowhere to point fingers at. I think that's why I am off by one or two.

Now, I'm willing to go with the group this time and take out starseed. I think he is one of the highest on my list. Interestingly, I think he and flameswin may have orchestrated a little back-and-forth between one another, and I kind of think they are both on the same mafia team. Yes, I know flameswin currently has his vote cast for starseed. But the plan is likely to change that. It is also possible they are both mafia, but on opposite sides of the fence.

As to flameswin: he's a smart guy, and known for posting frequently and with insight. I don't think he's done that this game, and that's odd. He says it's because he got killed off so quickly last game, but I am not sure that rings true. I think he's been hiding in the weeds a bit to avoid attention.

I think Baxter Renegade could be on either mafia team, but I tend to think he may be on the same squad as starseed and/or flameswin. I mainly suspect him for his vote pattern, but he was also very quick to drum up support against activeStick and agulati. Then he immediately jumped on people who tried to steer away from lynching townspeople. He has also pointed the finger at Hockeyguy15, but I'm not sure if that's a false flag or they are on opposite sides.

CofR has posted quite a bit, but very little of a substantive nature, and almost nothing lately. I think he may be sort of the "noise" guy on his team. His lack of recent activity may be telling, and I can't help but wonder if he held back his vote last round because of my vote analysis.

As for Hockeyguy15, I have previously said why I am suspicious. He certainly posts a lot, but threw around a lot of accusations early in the game that helped innocent people get killed. Plus he voted all three times to lynch town. He may be on the same team as starseed, but I'm not sure. There just isn't enough information yet to detemrine who is on whose team.

Interestringly, I don't really suspect Rathji, although he also voted three times to lynch town. In reading his posts, he seems to have a thought process that makes sense for a townsperson. So although he's on my list, I don't suspect him. I hope that doesn't end up coming back to bite me.

Now I will say this, just in case the hammer should drop and I mysteriously end up dead during the night. If we lynch starseed and he is mafia, look to the other names I have listed here, and look closely at their posts. I think I may be a target now because I am getting too close to the truth.

Now here's the part where I openly taunt the mafia:

I think BOTH mafia groups may vote to off me during the night. That would be good for the town if it happened, because it means only one of us die. I have no problem being the sacrificial lamb if it gets us closer to winning as a group.

Except both sides know the other may vote for me to die tonight, so it is very possible that NEITHER side votes for me, and I survive to live another day. See what I did, mafia jerks?! I put you in a prisoner's dilemma that you can't solve because of imperfect information!! So go ahead and try to night kill me, because the other mafia will probably do the same and I'll end up stealing a kill from you for the town. Except now you're confused. What's the right move?? You don't know, do you?! BRAIN EXPLOSION!

Put THAT in your mafia pipes and smoke it!!

Oh, another thing, mafia guys. You're probably thinking "How did he name so many of us successfully? Does he have some other source of information that he is gathering evidence from?" I don't know, DOES HE?! Or is he setting himself up to be intentionally killed by the mafia to buy the town some time? Who knows?! Not me!

Think about it.

Thre very long posts.


One of them is not like the other.


Crazy Bacon Legs, why do you not vote? You put a lot of effort into that post, but don't actually vote. Was that intentional?

I have read a lot of the post leading up to mine of today, and am really leaning hard towards Starseed.

To behonest, I think we really need to make sure we hit a scumbag with this vote.

We currently have 7 votes, Starseed is dead.

I am going to take some more time to review prior to moving this closer to the hammer death blow. If after reviewing the thread (holy crap 67 pages ).