Alright, I am going to make this quick and dirty because I don't have to worry about offending specific people who could target me in a night kill etc. I was frustrated when activeStick flipped town not only because he was town, but because he didn't leave behind a solid group of names with reasoning. Town flips can still be useful when they leave behind their list of suspects that we can use because we would know that they aren't mafia trying to direct us.
First I am going to look at the known flips, bizaro - Parker, devo - Barrow.
bizaro:
- lynched hmmhmmcamo, and agulati, then was killed by barrow
- advocated low post count targets (just looked up counts, devo and bizaro are around the middle, but that could be coincidence based on mafia targeting people based on post activity level?)
- Attacks rathji, then backs off and votes ineedanother
- unvotes after vig reveal, then encourages potential real vig to come out and kill ineedanother
- expressed support for following ineedanother
- posts a lot about CBL, not necessarily anything damning, but does bring him up a lot
- pushes agulati lynch when votes were going their way
- targets HD (could be proof parker targeted delgar, as he mentions it)
- points to GGG's suspects of Baxter, aS, strombad, Legoman
- joins CC in targeting Legoman
- tries to focus town into voting agulati when others were voting aS, Lego, baxter, tranny, CBL
devo:
- lynched hmmhmmcamo, and agulati, votes tranny while aS got lynched, then is killed by parker
- defends HG
- agrees with CC's reasoning in voting ineedanother, but doesnt vote
- expresses shock at ineedanother's reveal, frustration with coming out
- votes tranny after the reveal
- posts that he was going out for beers while setting hmmhmmcamo vote, then posts every couple of hours after that to check on the vote
- supports agulati push, targets tranny again
- votes agulati
- votes tranny when most others were targeting aS
So my guess from oling's list is:
Barrow Mafia kills:
Day 1: GP_Matt (targeting bold player, could have been targeting mafia as GPMatt was suspicious for advocating doc/cop reveal strategy, and appeared on ineedanother's list)
Day 2: bizaro86 (targeting strong player?)
Day 3: GGG (strong player targeting specific players, including me. Could have been attempt to target mafia with the bonus of casting suspicion if incorrect)
Parker Mafia kills:
Day 1: Delgar (targeting strong players from last game, casting suspicion on HD)
Day 2: dsavillian (targeting someone that aroused suspicions, possible mafia target)
Day 3: devo22 (mafia target)
As for current theories, tranny is probably town, definitely not barrow, but could be parker. Seems genuinely inactive initially.
I have twice suspected kermit, both when he joined Timbo in pressuring ineedanother, then again when he pushed away from the agulati vote. I thought Timbo and Kermit were working together, which turned out to be wrong. I thought the agulati drop off was an attempt to get people to jump off, but I was wrong. Kermit was pointed at with GGG by devo, so if he is mafia, he probably isn't barrow. If he flips mafia, I will go insane.
CC, he led the agulati vote (I followed after) then jumped off when it was a runaway vote, despite still saying that he suspected agulati. This seems like an attempt to not be put in the list of those who have always voted for the lynched townie. Also, he changed his vote to Legoman based on his crusade against completely. In lego's advocating a lynch of completely, he gave opportunity for a slight gotcha in the way he explained his rationale for completely. His reasoning is obviously completely bs, but CC pounced on it without hesitation despite the result from when he pounced on agulati. It could be that CC was waiting for a chance to defend completely while watching Legoman target his fellow mafia... but the completely suspicion is light, and only made stronger with a CC mafia flip.
As for GGG, I suspected him of being mafia in targeting me. There was a post I picked up on where he seemingly purposefully switched parker with barrow, which added to the mounting suspicions. When he started to back off, and didn't really receive backup from Oling, or anyone else, I started to have doubts again. I still don't understand why GGG would fight the vote block idea so hard core, but I guess this and bizaro's support of the idea is proof that it is flawed. The initial list was mostly duds, but I think that should be expected since it was a day one list. As days go on, the lists would get better, and we would start to have more success. We would also still have info to go on in who fought for which candidates.
I have been wrong a lot, but I don't think many others have been right in the first three days. However, I get the reasoning behind my lynching, so no hard feelings.
Anyways, I think I will make more direct responses in my defence, then go to bed before mother's day festivities.
For reasons stated:
vote: CaptainCrunch