[Crazy Bacon Legs]

Good. We have some patterns now.

WARNING: actual analysis below!!!

Two townspeople have been lynched so far, and the tally for who voted in favour of those lynchings is as follows:

hmmhmmcamo:

ineedanother, starseed, Aeneas, devo22, GP_Matt, bizaro86, Street Pharmacist, Rathji, kermitology, flameswin, CofR, Baxter Renegade, Hockeyguy15, GGG, Crazy Bacon Legs

agulati:

starseed, Hockeyguy15, Aeneas, devo22, DropIt, bizaro86, CofR, HalifaxDrunk, Baxter Renegade, Rathji, Completely, transplant99, flameswin, Street Pharmacist, activeStick

It makes sense that several people accidentally vote for an innocent person each round (I did, and immediately said "oops" afterwards). It is less likely that someone innocently votes both times for a townsperson, however.

The people who voted both times to kill an innocent townsperson are:

starseed, Aeneas, devo22, bizaro86, Street pharmacist, Rathji, flameswin, CofR, Baxter Renegade, Hockeyguy15

That's my list of prime suspects. Mafia are far more likely to vote for a townsperson (given that they know 3 more people who are mafia, as well as themselves.) Whether they are spurring the vote against a townie or jumping on the bandwagon isn't really clear to me yet, but it makes a whole lot of sense for mafia to have voted twice for people who ended up being innocent townies.

Of note is the fact that bizaro86 voted this way both times, and turned out to be the only confirmed mafia. Obviously, at least two people in my suspect list genuinely voted that way out of coincidence. I would suggest it is a very high likelihood that most of the other eight were mafia.

At this time, I am very much leaning toward Hockeyguy15. He was the one to jump on agulati for his comment about night kills (which, as I suggested, was just poor wording). And he jumped on fast, instigating the pile of votes against agulati.

(Incidentally, I also kind of suspect Street pharmacist, but if he's mafia I think he is most likely a member of the mafia opposite Hockeyguy15. They are both on the dual voting list, but were calling each other out early in the game. Or they were putting on a show to deflect attention.)

I think this is the best we have to go on at the moment. I have not yet decided which one of those to vote for this round, but I guarantee you it will be someone from that list.