Quote:
Originally Posted by KenHouston
Well if Ekblad becomes TJ Brodie, can we consider him a bust? No offense but TJ is a decent dman but is being way over valued. Ekblad has franchise potential, comparing him to TJ is crazy. Just the size difference puts them in different categories.
TJ plays 15 mins a game on most playoff teams.
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Every year it's the same conversation: this guy has franchise potential, comparing him to XXX (a good defenseman that's actually playing well in the NHL) is crazy.
Well, let's look at the last 20 defensemen to be lottery picks and see how many of them are actually better than Brodie. I gave them 4 rankings: (yes - top defensemen; too soon to tell; similar - playing at a level about the same as Brodie; no - not as good)
Drafted #1:
E Johnson: similar (finally, though he is older)
Drafted #2:
Murray: too soon
Hedman: yes
Doughty: yes
Drafted #3:
Gudbranson: too soon
Bogosian: similar (being kind)
J Johnson: no
Barker: no
Bouwmeester: similar (consider their roles and how Bow performed in the role Brodie currently has)
Drafted #4:
Jones: too soon
Reinhart: too soon
Larsson: too soon
Pietrangelo: yes
Hickey: no
Pitkanen: no
Klesla: no
Drafted #5:
Rielly: too soon
Schenn: no
Alzner: no
Whitney: no
3 yes
3 similar (being kind IMO)
8 no (3 or 4 total busts)
6 too soon
Of the too sooners (Jones, Murray, Reinhart, Rielly, Gudbranson, Larsson), it is probably reasonable to guess that 2 or 3 will be better and 3 or 4 will be similar or not as good
In total, maybe 1/3 will be/are better, 1/3 or less will be/are similar, and more than 1/3 are worse, with a few total busts.
I am not suggesting that Ekblad won't be as good as Brodie, but it is far from certain that he'll be better.
Based on the historical returns for lottery forwards vs lottery defensemen, Bennett is probably a much better bet to be a great player than Ekblad.
So to suggest trading Bennett and Brodie for Ekblad is complete lunacy IMO.