Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDebaser
I've thought about making a stat that could help figure out a shots quality, which could be used to figure out which players are getting good shots off rather than just measuring the amount of pucks hitting the goalie. I could see it being done with just an x,y position from the goal.
There are two ways it could be done.
1)An equation that uses the xy position of a shot to get the angle/distance of a shot to assign it a score. Something like "Quality= Sin(Angle)/Distance" where "Angle = InvTan(y/x)" and "Distance = x^2 + y^2" would output a rough score. More work would be needed.
2)Use tons of data from the entire league to create a kind of heatmap that could assign a shooting % from a given part of the ice. This would be ideal, but it would probably require programming knowledge. (If the data is even out there.)
These stats could be used to measure a player offensively and defensively. Instead of counting shots for and against, count shooting % opportunities for and against.
Ex: If a player gets a 9% and a 15% opportunity in a shift, but the opponent gets a 12% and 14% opportunity, his score would be -.02 for his shift. (I think there's room to improve this with stats knowledge.)
This system would show if a player is not getting tons of chances, but is getting better ones, or if he is keeping players to the outside defensively. Since it's the same idea as corsi, but with shot quality factored in, this is also a possession stat.
What do you guys think?
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I like the intent.
Shot location is unfortunately inadequate as a proxy for shot quality. The cross crease tap-in right beside the post may have the same xy as the puck being jammed into a firmly planted goalie's pad. One has a 90 plus percent chance of going in, the other closer to zero.
In that case, or for many goals in close, there are many (as far as I know) unmeasured items such as, I don't know... location of prior puck possession, goalie position, and whatever the heck happened leading up to that shot.
Then there are situations where a point shot is made with a lot of net front traffic compared to one where the goalie has a clear line of sight.
You may almost have to get to the point of scoring player positions for all teams to identify relative team position quality (?) which may identify lapses in coverage.
You have to distinguish between manpower situations, and then beyond that,
Corsi I believe went to the point of considering score effects (is a team up by 2 or trailing by 1 and pressing). This stuff gets incredibly complicated, especially when the players' mantra is to get pucks on net and get traffic
The one that seems easiest to identify is if that if the shot is from the neutral zone, identifying if the shooter is or is not McGrattan.