Quote:
Originally Posted by darklord700
Last time, PC got 44% and WR 34% of the popular votes. My guess is the WR 34% were solid and hard votes and the PC 44% incorporate some strategic votes and union votes bought by Redford.
WR doesn't need much more than than 1/3 of the popular votes next time to form a minority government assuming the strategic voters will not back the PC and there's no reason for the unions to vote PC anymore.
I would say anything close to 40% of popular votes will get WR in.
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I'm not sure you can say the Wildrose's 34% is 'solid'. Wildrose basically formed as a result of people disaffected with the Tories. It stands to reason that if the PC party can regain a level of trust, it can regain those votes. Wildrose as a party is just too young to have a good idea of where their solid support may lie.