[ernie]

Kass continues to be a clueless passenger that has deluded herself into thinking she has a chance to win the game. Her "big move" came way to early, was pointless and put a good chunk of the jury against her because of it. Since then she has coasted.

Not yet convinced Tony makes it to the final 3. He'll get forced to play his regular idol next tribal I think which gets him to final 5. They will still be gunning for him the next time and he'll end up playing his power idol getting him to the final 4. After that he'll need to win a challenge. By breaking from his alliance and promising the moon to everyone he continues to put a bullseye on his back. And now that everything is fractured people are going to actually start shooting at that bullseye and not as Spencer/Tasha.

He makes the final 3 if the other two believe he has no chance to get votes. I don't think that's a chance people take with a guy who has controlled the game if they don't have to. Yes he has annoyed a lot of people but it's been his game since the beginning and there is likely a fear that he get respect votes.

Where Tony made the mistake was forgetting that in order to "guarantee" the win he needed to bring Kass and the old skinny one to the final three ( i seriously have no idea what her name is...she's made that much of an impression on me). Maybe he can beat Woo. But if Spencer or Tasha are sitting next to him he's done. But now Kass and the other one will be gunning for him. He now may need people to explicitly save him at some point and bring him along. Which means he likely failed in his bid to become the winner. His pitch to the jury was on controlling the game from start to finish...he may have just given up that control. He still feels he has the control due to his idols but he isn't free and clear yet.