[troutman]

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/20...PUI/story.html

Indeed, mathematical studies indicate that the extra-man gambit works often enough to justify it. Andrew Thomas, who studied data from four NHL seasons during the past decade for an article in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis, found that 30 percent of the goals scored with the cage empty were tallied by the attacking side. And while the league doesn’t keep stats on empty-cage goals, the Elias Sports Bureau reports that 48 extra-attacker goals (with or without the goalie pulled) were scored in the final three minutes during this year’s regular season with another seven in the playoffs.

If anything, researchers say, coaches should make an inevitable move sooner. “Under any reasonable set of assumptions, hockey coaches wait too long before pulling their goalies,” professors Robert Nydick and Howard Weiss concluded in a paper on the subject. The traditional rule of thumb calls for adding an extra attacker with between 90 seconds and two minutes remaining, with between two and 2:30 if down by two, or earlier if the trailing team is on the power play.