Quote:
Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher
Nichushkin was in the consensus top group and went 10th. So that hurts your idea of consensus.
Yeah? What was that group? At the time Morgan Rielly was not in the consensus top group. And yet the Maple Leafs had him rated #1. So again that blows your idea of consensus out of the water. We know some teams had Murray #1, some had Galchenyuk, some had Rielly and perhaps some had Yakupov. Quite obviously there was no consensus #1.
And yet Nylander is top 5 in some rankings. Some scouts may have Ritchie top 5. And some may have Ehlers. Doesn't that kind of hurt your idea of a clearcut consensus top 5 guys?
It's a stupid concept because it misleads some fans and then causes dramatic discussions when teams go "off the board". We shouldn't really be surprised if any of Nylander, Ehlers or Ritchie sneak into the top 5. We shouldn't be surprised if a guy like Draisaitl falls out of the top 5. So then there isn't necessarily a consensus top 5 that everybody agrees on.
If we want to handicap it and say its most likely that Bennett, Reinhart, Ekblad, Draisaitl and Dal Colle go top 5 then I'm sure we all agree on that. But lets not make the mistake of confusing ourselves into thinking that because those guys are most often seen in the top 5 that they have to go top 5 and that all teams have those guys as their top 5 because thats not how it works.
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I would bet my CP account that if you hired a statistician to do a correlation regression type plot that the theoretical top 5 or 10 would have a decently strong correlation with the actual top 5 or 10. Sure there fliers and outliers, but they don't blow away any argument that there is a "board" or a "consensus" group.