Quote:
Originally Posted by Dagger
I agree that each teams lists are the only ones that matter, and that's how each team should draft prospects. That's the scouting staffs job. The front office's job is to determine the relative value of the prospect and determine "do I move up to get this guy, if I move down will he still be there." It's precisely why the team sitting with the 30th selection next year isn't going to be surprised when McDavid isn't there for them.
Why would the Flames have moved down in the draft to take Jankowski if they thought he was going to be the best player in the draft 10 years from now? Why didn't they move up in that instance? Seems to me that would have been the logical thing to do, if they felt as strongly as they did about Mark becoming the best player from it. It's all about value, and they felt strongly he'd be there for them later...how they determined that I am unsure of though since there is apparently no board.
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There is no board but that doesn't mean that teams aren't trying to gain some insight into what players other teams are likely to target and therefore try to maximize value. Teams likely have some idea of how often other teams have scouted a player, and scouts no doubt probably talk. You can probably even find out if a team has interviewed a player. Lots of ways to gain some insight into what other teams are going to do.
There is no one board.
There are 30 of them.
And you would be a fool to just ignore what those other 29 boards likely look like.
But worrying about any of the consensus singular lists would be foolish for a GM
Moreover, the decision isn't nearly as simplistic as you make it out to be - and I suspect you know this. That is the Flames likely had a few players in mind - we know if they didn't take Janko they likely would have taken Sieloff with the pick.
So the decision is more like this.
- We don't move down and just get Janko
- We move down and a few things can happen
1. We get Janko AND the other guy we like (Sieloff)
2. Janko gets picked and we take Sieloff plus someone else instead (Matt Finn was a guy they liked I think)
3. Janko gets picked so we move down again - or trade the 1st altogether. Or we take Sieloff and move the 2nd.
So you are balancing all of those outcomes, and how much you like one over the other. In this case it is pretty crystal clear that the while the Flames liked Janko, they were willing to risk not getting him to potentially get a 2nd player they liked.
Makes sense to me. Not sure why people try to look at things like this in such black and white terms.