Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
I knew someone would come back with the classic 'take it to the extreme and then dismiss it' argument.
No one said that scouts are useless or are wasting their time. The argument is that the differences between the 5-10 type guys are marginal. And they are 18 year old kids.
The simple fact of the matter is that is if you made the list 6 months earlier, or 6 months later, it would be different. They are kids. Some are going to develop more than others.
Pick the one you like and move on. But to get butt-hurt over the consensus list, and to consider it a massive mistake to take a guy ranked 7th vs 5th (consensus) is ridiculous.
No matter how much you watch them.
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You clearly wouldn't recognize sarcasm if it hit you on the side of the head.
There is a difference when various people around the league and scouting sources (who are free to have their own perspectives) say there is the same clear cut top 5. Ritchie for example (who I think is who you were talking about) is not included in those five. Also we're not drafting 5th, we're drafting 4th.
I think you got it half right. There is always a top tier in every draft class that is identified by draft time. After that tier, it is often a toss up. A player at 15 can pass the player at 8. But that top group or tier of players is often identified and thoroughly followed and studied, and much more often than not, they get that first handful of players right, as either having the highest ceiling, or at least being the most likely to make it at the next level. Sure, there is the odd time they're way off on a top ranked prospect, but nowadays it's rare.
If this top group includes 7 players, then sure you can take #7 at #4, it's not that much of a reach if they're considered more or less on the same level. When that group includes 5 player, unless your scouts are convinced they see something special in a kid, why the hell would you reach beyond the group that's considered by many above the rest?
I'm not too worried, cause I think the Flames scouts will make the right choice and play it safe, but I'm sick of people thinking they're smarter than these scouts, and dismiss the rankings. Sure, the rankings may change as the players develop. But it's very likely that the top handful of players who were identified early on will remain intact, and in a weaker draft year, I really think we shouldn't mess around or take chances, as small as you might perceive the risk to be.