Quote:
Originally Posted by Five-hole
His size raises two red flags for me. They're not deal-breakers but they're also not present with most other prospects in the 3-7 range. I suspect this is where many other people are coming from, too.
These are:
1) Not all players with conditioning problems just "figure it out". See Byfuglien, Penner, Howse, Cundari
2) A player so much more physically mature than others at his age may give him an unfair advantage in junior that may not be there in the NHL.
With the latter, I admit to having similar reservations about Ekblad. It's one thing to dominate guys when you're 20 or 30 or 50 lbs heavier than them. It's another when you're no longer the biggest player on the ice. How much of their game is merely a result of their being able to physically dominate those around them? If this physical domination doesn't translate to the NHL, will they be effective?
You'd expect that players rated in the top tier are probably not those that scouts are really concerned about re: this issues, but it's not surprising that fans are apprehensive about it, especially when there are other guys in the same area that don't have these red flags.
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I've seen this argument a few times and I can't really buy into it.
Is Ekblad scoring 20+ goals because of his size? Is he making Canada's top 4 as a draft eligible player strictly because of his size? His size is a positive attributes of his just like shot and just like his physical play. This positive attribute does not go away when he joins a league with a slightly bigger average height/weight.
Do we equally worry about Reinhart not being able to translate his hockey sense advantage at a higher level where the average hockey sense is higher? Not really I don't think.
Do we equally worry about Bennett not being able to translate his shot, speed, etc at a higher level where players on average shoot harder and skate faster? Nope.
So why do we think size wouldn't translate? Makes no sense to me. If a guy is a beast in junior he should be a beast in the NHL. If his size/strength edge is huge in junior then it's still going to be significant in the NHL. Ekblad is much bigger than guys like Backlund, Glencross, Cammalleri, etc. He should be able to physically overpower most of our forwards.
I think where there should be concern is when a small guy is a really physical player and you wonder if that will translate because he's actually below average in size. Gilbert Brule was seen as a powerforward in his draft year and he went very high but he was only 5'10 180ish and his style was dangerous and somewhat ineffective at his size.
But if you've got a huge guy who's a physical player? Great! Instead of worrying if it will translate I'm drooling at the thought of him physically dominating the NHL for the Flames. I don't see this as a red flag at all and am somewhat bewildered why anybody would. We're looking for big, physical players, we shouldn't be paranoid that they are overrated because of their size. Scouts are taking all these factors into account. Ekblad is more than just a big defenseman, it's the sum of his attributes that make him the prospect he is. His size should be attractive to the Flames with our lack of size in the top 4, it shouldn't be worrying.
And if Ritchie ends up being the type of player who carries 5-10 lbs extra I don't even think that's the end of the world with his style of play. Those extra pounds can make him even harder to move in front the net, knock off the puck, etc. As long as his skating isn't very adversely affected a tad extra weight is not the end of the world. Ove isn't the slimmest lad either and it doesn't seem to drag him down.