Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenLantern
Interesting, thanks, glad I got that cleared up. I never truly understood how that ranking works and I don't think a lot of other people did.
So there must be some examples of kids that had a high NHLE ranking and tanked right out of the show? Or has that yet to happen?
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Correct. NHLE is
an average that factors in all the numbers from every league. Because of that, it is a bell curve in which MOST PLAYERS fall within the average range, but there are always a handful on either side of the average. Some players don't make the jump for whatever reason, while others greatly surpass expectations—like Crosby, Kane, and Malkin. In the end, each one of these numbers contributes to the average. Monahan's NHLE entering his rookie season was 30.25, and he scored 34 points; pretty close to what was projected. Of course, Nathan MacKinnon far exceeded his and Aleksander Barkov and Elias Lindholm fell short of theirs.
So, what I like about NHLE is that it provides a generally good idea of what to expect from a first-year NHL player. Gaudreau's NHLE over an 82 games season is 67 points. If he is within range of that, that equates to a fantastic rookie season, but even if he is short of it, a 45–55 point rookie season is something that I don't think any fan would complain about. Based on the historical averages, he
should project to be a great player—dare I say, an elite level player.