Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
Crosby, Kovalchuk, and Kane were all 18, and Malkin was 20-years-old. But here is the thing about NHLE: It EQUALIZES components to a degree that the comparison from one league to another is fairly consistent. Compared to their peers in Canadian Juniour, Crosby and Kane both projected to be +60 point-scorers in their first NHL season, and both surpassed that mark by a considerable amount. Compared to his peers in the NCAA, Gaudreau projects to be a +60 point-scorer next year, which is fantastic. But because his NHLE is so high, and because he is comparatively very young to make the move from college to the NHL, it should not come as a surprise to also see him surpass that mark.
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Well, in the case of Crosby and Kane, they entered the NHL at 18, whereas the majority of players make the jump at 20. The development curve between ages 18 and 20 is pretty steep, so they should be expected to outperform the average NHLE for junior players by a wide margin.
Gaudreau's first pro season will come at 21, whereas the majority of college players turn pro at 22 or 23. The development curve between 21 and 23 is not as steep, so while Gaudreau's age-adjusted NHLE should be somewhat higher than 60 points, the difference is not as marked as with an 18-year-old junior player.
Then, of course, there's the fact that his NHLE equates to 60 points
per 82 games. Considering that the kid isn't used to playing an 82-game season, and that he has the approximate mass of a large pipe cleaner, it might be a bit much to expect him to play 82 games. Somewhat fewer games, but still around the expected number of points, I dare to guess.
Edit: Just noticed that Gaudreau's NHLE was 67, which does make it more likely that he can crack 80 points. For some reason I thought his NHLE was 60 on the nose.