Quote:
Originally Posted by activeStick
I think we've been pretty solid on weeding out and identifying the Mafia so far with our lynch votes thanks to octo and others with the analysis and it seems most of us are aligned with Aeneas as the next one so I'm onboard with him as the next to go.
The more worrisome thing to me is the remaining 1-2 enemies who could be a mixture of Mafia and assassin if there is one.
We should probably talk through a little more on strategies to identify the assassin... Any ideas?
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I think it will require deciding how much we trust people's roles. (For those who haven't revealed their roles yet, revealing and demonstrating your role is something you may need to do at some point.)
Octothorp: claims one-shot kill (used on huntingwhale)
Wood: claims tirepumper/mason (confirmed by undercoverbrother)
Undercoverbrother: claims tirepumper/mason (confirmed by wood)
Aeneas: claims tracker
Stazzy: claims hot/cold streak - roleblocker / (disputed in secret message to Wood), can confirm posting part tonight or role
Dissentowner: claims coroner, claims used on Captain Crunch
Agulati: claims one-shot roleblocker, claims used on Stazzy
I think we're all suspicious on Aeneas.
Stazzy suggests that Agulati's ability is suspiciously underpowered.
Dissentowner's is plausible given that it's a natural counter for Drake's janitor role.
Stazzy's role is disputed by a secret message Wood received. As well, even if Stazzy proves his posting ability, it doesn't mean that his roleblocker ability is confirmed. (Could plausibly be a serial-killer who can post a message to the players every other night), which would be an interesting combination of powers.
I've made my suspicions about Wood and Undercoverbrother known: I believe they're telling the truth that they have an ability that allows them to communicate via PM. But whether that's as masons by a different name, mafia, or some independent faction like siblings, I don't know.
So we have reason to suspect that one undeclared role is an ability to send an anonymous PM per night, and this may either be a mafia decoy ability, or may be linked to a rolecop.
ActiveStick and Anduril: undeclared (unless I missed it for either of you). My hunch is that if either of you are the serial-killer, you would have already made a role-declare as an attempt to blend in. But that doesn't exonerate either of you, just a hunch.
We also need to keep in mind that people who are lying about their ability might be doing it because they are mafia, because they are a serial-killer, or because they are players who have an ability that would make them an instant target if they declared it. I think anybody in this situation (and you guys who are undeclared) will need to think carefully about when to declare it. If no good candidates emerge tonight, then tomorrow may be the right time.
It's in an independent serial-killer's best interests to kill mafia, and players with relatively proven abilities, in my opinion. Although if the serial-killer fears some as-yet undeclared role, that would be an option too.