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troutman · 04-03-2014, 02:45 PM

Punting is bad?

http://media.nesn.com/2012/08/top-10...ruths-girth/5/

Myth: Football coaches who punt on fourth down are “playing the percentages.” Fact: Patriots fans and haters still debate Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th-and-2 against the Colts in 2009. As everyone remembers, Tom Brady completed a pass to Kevin Faulk that was spotted short of the marker, the Colts assumed possession and Peyton Manning led a game-winning drive. Many prominent analysts, including Sports Illustrated’s Peter King, lamented that Belichick did not play the “percentages” by punting in that situation. Turn on any close football game on Saturdays or Sundays in the fall, and you are sure to hear the announcers call punting the safe, high-percentage move. In fact, every statistical study on punting finds that going for it is almost always the higher-percentage choice. Punting on fourth down gives a team three chances to move the ball 10 yards, and if they fail possession reverts to the opponent. Not punting on fourth down gives a team four chances to move the ball 10 yards, and if they fail the consequence is… possession reverting to the opponent. (Field position mostly has a negligible effect.) Next time one of your Jets fan friends mocks His Hoodieness for that move, tell him Belichick was simply playing the percentages. (Facebook/New England Patriots)

04-03-2014, 02:45 PM	#472
troutman Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Crowsnest Pass Exp:	Punting is bad? http://media.nesn.com/2012/08/top-10...ruths-girth/5/ Myth: Football coaches who punt on fourth down are “playing the percentages.” Fact: Patriots fans and haters still debate Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th-and-2 against the Colts in 2009. As everyone remembers, Tom Brady completed a pass to Kevin Faulk that was spotted short of the marker, the Colts assumed possession and Peyton Manning led a game-winning drive. Many prominent analysts, including Sports Illustrated’s Peter King, lamented that Belichick did not play the “percentages” by punting in that situation. Turn on any close football game on Saturdays or Sundays in the fall, and you are sure to hear the announcers call punting the safe, high-percentage move. In fact, every statistical study on punting finds that going for it is almost always the higher-percentage choice. Punting on fourth down gives a team three chances to move the ball 10 yards, and if they fail possession reverts to the opponent. Not punting on fourth down gives a team four chances to move the ball 10 yards, and if they fail the consequence is… possession reverting to the opponent. (Field position mostly has a negligible effect.) Next time one of your Jets fan friends mocks His Hoodieness for that move, tell him Belichick was simply playing the percentages. (Facebook/New England Patriots)