Confirmation bias:
This is the element of the game I find hardest right now. Every new piece of information can be interpreted in two ways, because it could be legitimate, or it could be misdirection. And the more it pushes towards sincerity, the more it looks like mis-information. If there are three mafia left, my belief has been for a while that it's Aeneas, UCB, and now Wood. My naturai instinct is to interpret the information in a way that supports my bias.
So when I see Aeneas vote UCB first thing in the morning, this looks like an attempt to distance UCB if Aeneas is lynched and turned out to be mafia. Same with Wood suspecting Aeneas today, or the report about Stazzy - which could be authentic or could be Wood trying to seem trusting of Stazzy enough that if Stazzy is voted out and turns out to be players, it exonerates Wood. I'm particularly skeptical of posts early in a 'day' because this is when the mafia's advantage of planning is at its greatest. They can better formulate plans of how they can control the day.
Of course, it's possible that Aeneas accusing Stazzy, and then Stazzy's whole conversation with Halifax Drunk yesterday and then failed roleblock attempt today could have been misinformation, too. (I recommend rereading his conversation with HD yesterday - it seems authentic to me, but like I say, confirmation bias).
So, trying to take my on my own confirmation bias: if Wood and UCB are totally uninvolved (which I admit is a solid possibility), then that means we need to talk about who else is a serious suspect.
UCB's innocence slight exonerates Agulati, based on his post here:
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=968
Which I can't see Agulati saying if he's mafia, unless UCB is too.
If Wood is innocent then assume he's telling the truth about his message from last night. If the message is true, then it does seem more like a mafia plant. Anduril's version raises some questions: why was Anduril's so vague and Wood's specific? This makes is seem like a mafia plant. If Anduril were mafia and Stazzy were innocent, Anduril would make a claim that would make the claim about Stazzy seem true. And if Anduril were mafia and Stazzy were mafia, then the mafia would have sent a post that absolved Stazzy, not one that incriminated him, since he couldn't have been sure that Wood would make.
So we've got a list now:
(Not including Aeneas because him trying to take me down with false tracking claims is, for me, enough to remove all doubt).
Octothorp posts against Timbo, Halifax Drunk, before votes.
Wood (assumed innocent for this exercise)
UCB (assumed innocent for this exercise)
Agulati - posts against Timbo before voting, post defending UCB
Anduril - strongly exonerated by Wood claims and own post
Stazzy - exonerated somewhat by Wood/Anduril claims, HD attacks
Dissentowner - only a suspect if aeneas and halifax drunk attacks were misdirection, which seems unlikely.
Activestick - solid voting/posting record
So that leaves us with this: 8 people, all of whom have solid claims to being players. If tomorrow leads to another two lynchings, then please, whoever survives the night, question absolutely all of your assumptions. It means at least one mafia guy is remaining and they are under deep cover.
If people are patient enough to wait for tomorrow (calendar tomorrow, not game tomorrow) I can post a more thorough 'book' on each player.