Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - CP Lockout Mafia - Game Over

octothorp · 04-02-2014, 01:49 PM

Serial-killer logic:

If I'm the serial killer right now, and assuming I don't know the numbers, I'm going to be targeting two things: mafia, and players with demonstrated roles. Because these are the two things that would pose the greatest threat: the mafia know who one-another are, so they obviously have a higher chance of killing the serial killer (either intentionally or by chance); and players with known roles eliminate potential serial killer suspects. A best-case scenario for the assassin is all the mafia eliminated, as well as all the players who have a proven role-claim. A bad-case scenario is being left with all players who have made strong roleclaims. A worst-case scenario is being left with multiple mafia and no players. Get rid of the mafia first, and you reduce the potential attacks on you by 50%, and eliminate the side you don't want to be in an end-game against.

You look at the odds thus far: five assassin kills, no mafia have been hit. Five mafia kills, the serial-killer has not been hit. At some point, the odds start to suggest that we are working against one faction with two kills, not two factions with one kill. Another night of two player kills (especially two guys who are well-believed to be players) and I think we can make that assumption.

I'm all for trying to find the serial-killer, I just don't think we have any good leads on him right now.

Anyway, last nights' kills. Both guys with declared (and generally-believed) rolls. Which means that at least one of them was killed not because of who they might have been but because of what they might have said. It's possible that the serial-killer killed one of them as part of an eliminating-proven-roles strategy. If future evidence suggests that there is not a serial-killer but a mafia-aligned assassin, then that means every kill has been a mafia-related assassin. Which means both dsavillain and blaster were eliminated because of a threat that they posed to the mafia, but not a threat that was direct-enough that it would be obvious to the rest of us.

04-02-2014, 01:49 PM	#1187
octothorp Franchise Player Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: not lurking Exp:	Serial-killer logic: If I'm the serial killer right now, and assuming I don't know the numbers, I'm going to be targeting two things: mafia, and players with demonstrated roles. Because these are the two things that would pose the greatest threat: the mafia know who one-another are, so they obviously have a higher chance of killing the serial killer (either intentionally or by chance); and players with known roles eliminate potential serial killer suspects. A best-case scenario for the assassin is all the mafia eliminated, as well as all the players who have a proven role-claim. A bad-case scenario is being left with all players who have made strong roleclaims. A worst-case scenario is being left with multiple mafia and no players. Get rid of the mafia first, and you reduce the potential attacks on you by 50%, and eliminate the side you don't want to be in an end-game against. You look at the odds thus far: five assassin kills, no mafia have been hit. Five mafia kills, the serial-killer has not been hit. At some point, the odds start to suggest that we are working against one faction with two kills, not two factions with one kill. Another night of two player kills (especially two guys who are well-believed to be players) and I think we can make that assumption. I'm all for trying to find the serial-killer, I just don't think we have any good leads on him right now. Anyway, last nights' kills. Both guys with declared (and generally-believed) rolls. Which means that at least one of them was killed not because of who they might have been but because of what they might have said. It's possible that the serial-killer killed one of them as part of an eliminating-proven-roles strategy. If future evidence suggests that there is not a serial-killer but a mafia-aligned assassin, then that means every kill has been a mafia-related assassin. Which means both dsavillain and blaster were eliminated because of a threat that they posed to the mafia, but not a threat that was direct-enough that it would be obvious to the rest of us.