Okay, the numbers game. This is one big advantage that the mafia have over us: they know the numbers, we don't. They know if there's a serial killer or just a mafia-assassin. We don't.
With 9 people remaining (and assuming an original range of somewhere between 17-9 to 19-7), possible likely counts are:
(players - mafia - serial-killer)
7-2
7-1-1
6-3
6-2-1
5-4
5-3-1
A discussion of each:
7:2
If we take out 1 tonight, They’re down to 1, so assume they kill 1. At 6-1, we’ve now got a bit of a buffer.
If we miss-lynch tonight, then we’re suddenly down to 4-2 in lynch-or-lose territory tomorrow.
7:1:1
Pretty-much the same as above: a successful hit and we're looking for one amongst six, regardless of whether it's mafia or serial-killer. This is slightly better because if we miss, there's still the chance of cross-fire between the remaining mafia and serial killer.
6:3
Say we take out 1 tonight. If we don’t hit their assassin, they take out 2. We’re at 4-2. Next day we take out 1, they can’t possibly have two kills left by that point, unless there’s one guy who can do two kills a night. So likely we’re at 3-1. But one miss anywhere along the way, and we’re dead (lynch-or-lose, the parlance seems to be). This is the scenario that I fear the most, because the mafia can afford to throw someone under the bus for the purpose of misdirection.
If we miss tonight, and they take out two, we're at 3-3 tomorrow and we've lost.
6:2:1
This is slightly better, because at some point the serial killer is going to need to focus on mafia. If we miss with our lynch tonight, the serial killer will need to seriously consider targetting mafia (and honestly I'm surprised he hasn't already).
5:4
Worst-possible scenario. If we don't hit their assassin, they take out two of ours, and by the morning we're down to an even count.
5:3:1
This is slightly better. If we hit one tonight, we need to count on the assassin taking out at least one mafia over the next couple nights to still have a chance.
I think we need to assume 6:2:1 or 6:3. The extreme 5:4 and 5:3:1 is so tough I don't think there's a point in basing any strategy around that. If that's the remaining count, we need crazy luck to win. 7:2 or 7:1:1 is a strong possibility (and I hope that's the case!), but we shouldn't make assumptions that we have that sort of advantage.
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