Quote:
Originally Posted by Plett25
If Putin wants a war, he'll get the war that the US/NATO want. He'll get a trade war, and he'll lose that one. This is why Putin hasn't done much in the last week or so... if he escalates much more, he'll lose badly.
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Don't be so quick to think that. There is a LOT to consider at this point in economic history. Just a few things come to mind:
Russia already had its collapse and economic remoulding. They have some close (and growing) ties with China, including building a huge pipeline capacity to them AND of recent have allegedly reached a large oil/gas agreement to trade between the two via rubles/yuan instead of the US Dollar.
Announcement is expected in May when Putin visits China. That is another large nail in the US Petrodollar status.
Russia has also been building stronger ties with India. Between China and India, I think you have a huge potential for trade. Overlay that with the issue that these are
three of the largest gold holding governments. By creating gold backed currencies (in even a modest way) you could put another nail in the US coffin as this likely would trigger the massive inflation that at some point will hit the US due to money velocity kicking in.
And should Putin say to the EU, "I no longer take US Dollars for our gas, but your Euros are welcome" how would Europe react? First off, they would save a ton of money just in exchange rates alone. The Euro would rise giving them another cost savings on the gas imports. If energy prices drop, EVERYTHING drops in price from the ripple effect. One would think that Russia would be looked upon much more favourably due to this.
Think about it....
Iraq wanted to trade oil via the Euro, the US invaded.
Libya wanted to trade oil via gold and/or the Euro, the US attacked.
Don't think they will do that this time to Russia, for many reasons, so it is left to economics. But the US absolutely must have their Petrodollar continue otherwise they are hooped. Heck, they will be hooped sooner or later, this would just make it sooner.
Don't forget about Britain too. They are so screwed up in derivative hell that the next financial sneeze, if not bailed out by taxpayers worldwide, will likely take the whole system down. And I am not sure there is enough money in the world to cover the derivative liabilities.
This has been brewing for a long time.
The CIA invited Jim Rickards, author of "Currency Wars" to participate in a simulation based on an East (China, etc) versus the West using economic warfare.
Jim came home to his wife that night and when asked how it went, replied he had good news and bad news. Good news was he won, bad news was he played on the Chinese side.
The US and the West have a lot more to lose economically than the Russians. And it very well may be easier to make that happen.