Vote: HalifaxDrunk
If he's lynched, I'll be voting Aeneas on Day 6; and if he's lynched, undercoverbrother on Day 7, unless significant new evidence arises, or unless I'm dead. If undercoverbrother turns out to be mafia, I'll be voting Wood on day 8. I'm saying this to provide obvious breadcrumbs that others can follow up on if I am killed, but which will also hopefully make the mafia hesitate about killing me tonight. Seems like transparency is going to be the best policy.
I feel 100% confident that something is strange with Halifax Drunk, based on his bizarre roleclaim. Most likely he's mafia. There's a slight chance he's the assassin.
Although my gut is that he was telling the truth that he's a backup, just not a backup for a player, a backup for another mafia (following the axiom that the best way to lie is to tell something mostly true), and based on the fact that he doesn't seem especially knowledgeable of some of the roles in the game, but seems to know backup pretty well. If this is the case, I'm curious about whether the cardflip will reveal that they are a backup, the ability they are backing up, and whether the ability has been activated. If, for example, he is a mafia backup watcher, then we know that there's another mafia watcher out there. If he's a backup mafia roleblocker, then he was probably backing up drake. There's also the possibility that he's a backup janitor, that's scary to me; I could be mafia-killed during the night, and then he could janitor-clean my identity, y'all would believe I was mafia or assassin (as Wood has been suggesting), and be totally thrown off the trail. There's also the possibility that he could do this if he was a universal backup (although those sound rare for mafia to have).
HD being mafia would also lend further credence to dsavillain's theory of the day 1 voting block targeting Blaster; which, if he's revisiting, he can notice how quickly undercoverbrother and wood both jumped on after I made the suggestion about voting for one of the two vote leaders (blaster and street pharmacist), and which can be seen as further attempts to move the vote away from the low-posting names that were being suggested (Drake, Timbo, regulator). I was dismissive of dsavillain's theory at first (because he included me in it, as well as the posthumously exonerated Street Pharmacist), but it still could be very accurate (and it's possible that the reason dsavillain hadn't been killed while street pharmacist was, was to crush the theory and avoid breadcrumbs leading back to HD, which would be the same strategy as crushing Blaster's theory by leaving him alive and killing legoman.
For this reason, if I'm wrong about one of the names I mentioned, it would be consistent with the mafia's strategy to kill that person to attempt to undermine the whole theory.
I've got no idea about the assassin, even in terms of ruling other players out. It's possible that some people have a weak ability they've revealed, plus a strong secret ability. It's possible that people are lying about their abilities to avoid being targeted. My gut is that the assassin will be somewhere in the middle, posting enough to avoid beein singled out for a low post count, but not actually contributing enough to risk being targeted by mafia. It's possible that there is no independent serial-killer type assassin, simply a hitman killer who can act as an additional kill (which would explain no mafia players killed by the assassin so far).
|