Quote:
Originally Posted by Caged Great
The thing is that not everyone progresses beyond what they are when they are 18, and some only progress a little. Others put everything together.
He's a top prospect, but not the top prospect. There's less guarantee that the guy will figure things out. He should be a decent NHLer, but he'd have to take a huge leap forward to be a top end guy. Perry is an example of someone that was okay, but took a huge leap forward, similar to how Brodie has emerged as a top pairing guy. Betting a top 5 pick that he will take those steps forward is needlessly risky, when there are others that have those highest end tools in hand.
Also, drafting for size alone is terrible. Virtanen and Ritchie are not in the same class offensively as Draisaitl, Ehlers, Bennett, Reinhart or to a lesser extent Dal Colle. I know how necessary it is to have more size out there, but we need talent more and I would take a slightly smaller guy in Ehlers (5-11) or Bennett (6-0) who looks like he could be an impact player than someone that's only a bit taller, Virtanen is only 6-1, and Ritchie is only 6-2. When all of these guys fill out in a few years, they'll be roughly the same weight. It's not like Virtanen or Ritchie are 6-5 or something.
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It is tough to really say who is in what class in junior from an offensive standpoint. Let's just compare Ehlers and Ritchie for an example.
Ritchie is 'the guy' on his team, and puts up points nightly. Monahan was 'the guy' on his team as well, and got the same number of points.
Ehlers has Drouin to play with. How many more points would Ritchie get playing with Drouin?
Also, you have to look at how they translate to the NHL - is Ehlers more of a Brendl type (I know he isn't) or is he more of a MacKinnon type (again, not a good comparison either). Is Ritchie really a Bertuzzi, or is he more of a Ben Eager? Scouts say that his game translates well to the NHL, but that is far from a guarantee anyways.
I do know what you mean, however - Ehlers' skills are off the charts. How much of that ends up translating however? (I don't know myself).
Also, Ritchie is 6'3", 229. That is a big player, especially with the skill-set he has and the speed/agility he possesses. Ehlers and Ritchie will not fill out and be 'close in size' at all. Not by a long shot.
I am not trying to say that Ritchie would be a better pick than Ehlers here - I really don't know as I haven't seen much of either of them to know for sure. I am just not quite agreeing with how you are judging them at the moment. I have my own reservations about Ritchie - especially his past injury worries - and I am sort of 'indifferent' to him at the moment (though I can see Burke taking a keen interest in him).