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Bourque's Twin · 03-24-2014, 08:40 AM

I think there's consensus around here that one of Ekblad, Reinhart, or Bennett would be a huge win for the Flames. I just can't see it happening without a trade.

Here's the crappy scenario: Edmonton sucks! They will not choose higher than 3rd overall, meaning Ekblad will not be there for the 4th pick.

Here's some scenarios:
1) Flames win the lottery (8.1% chance currently). We take Ekblad.
2) Buffalo wins the lottery (25% chance) and takes Ekblad. Even if Edmonton takes Draisaitl at #2, FLA and NYI will take Reinhart and Bennett.
3) A team below the Oilers, but not the Flames, wins the lottery (48.1% chance). Again, I can't see any of Reinhart, Ekblad, and Bennett making it outside the top 4. Even if Ekblad and Bennett are taken #1 and #2, and the Oilers take Draisaitl, the next team would be stupid to not draft Reinhart.

In conclusion, the Flames will not get one of the 3 studs unless they win the lotto, make a trade, or finish worse in the standings. If they finish in the bottom 3, great. If they finish 4th last, and Draisaitl gets taken by the Oilers because Ekblad is already snatched, great.

We need FLA and NYI to get hot.

03-24-2014, 08:40 AM	#2076
Bourque's Twin First Line Centre Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: Section 120 Exp:	I think there's consensus around here that one of Ekblad, Reinhart, or Bennett would be a huge win for the Flames. I just can't see it happening without a trade. Here's the crappy scenario: Edmonton sucks! They will not choose higher than 3rd overall, meaning Ekblad will not be there for the 4th pick. Here's some scenarios: 1) Flames win the lottery (8.1% chance currently). We take Ekblad. 2) Buffalo wins the lottery (25% chance) and takes Ekblad. Even if Edmonton takes Draisaitl at #2, FLA and NYI will take Reinhart and Bennett. 3) A team below the Oilers, but not the Flames, wins the lottery (48.1% chance). Again, I can't see any of Reinhart, Ekblad, and Bennett making it outside the top 4. Even if Ekblad and Bennett are taken #1 and #2, and the Oilers take Draisaitl, the next team would be stupid to not draft Reinhart. In conclusion, the Flames will not get one of the 3 studs unless they win the lotto, make a trade, or finish worse in the standings. If they finish in the bottom 3, great. If they finish 4th last, and Draisaitl gets taken by the Oilers because Ekblad is already snatched, great. We need FLA and NYI to get hot.