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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
Its no long about Putin acting tough. In the last year we've seen a pretty obvious shift in global strength, and I'm not blaming it all on Obama.
But twice now Putin has stared the American's in the face and he hasn't flinched and he's taken the path of what some would consider to be most resistant. And he's won both times.
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He's won? We're 3 weeks into this situation... there is absolutely no way of knowing if Putin has won.
In mid September 1968, everyone concluded that the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia had ended liberalization in Eastern Europe, but fast forward 20 years and the Berlin Wall comes down and Communism is in the final stages of a death spiral.
Five weeks after invading Iraq in 2003, W. gave his "Mission Accomplished" speech. But I think we can all agree that things didn't go exactly to plan in the following decade.
How is this going to turn out for Putin? I don't know, but IMO he's swimming against the tide of history. He's trying to re-set history to where Russia's muscle could be flexed in Eastern Europe without consequence, to where nations acted without regard to the wishes of their trading partners and to where censorship was tolerable (or even possible)
Earlier you said
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
Who ever planned this out did one hell of a bang up job.
Basically its over, Putin will leverage his energy exports to keep the West in Line.
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If Putin attempts to leverage energy exports, he's starting a trade war with the west. The EU and the US each have a GDP of around 16 trillion, Japan is around 6 trillion and if you round up, Russia is around 3 trillion. Who's going to win a trade war? The $38 trillion dollar side or the $3 trillion dollar side?
Russia's economy is already slipping into recession, and "leveraging" energy exports will only accelerate and deepen the recession.
Putin is acting like George W. Bush, he's full of bravado, but appears ignorant of long term consequences of his actions. Actually, Putin is stupid-er than Bush, he's invading and destabilizing his next door neighbour... at least Bush had the sense to screw up a country on the other side of the world.