[octothorp]

I said at the beginning of the season that the main thing I was going to be looking for in terms of improvement was clutch stats (they were 30th in clutch +/- last year). This year they're up to 15th, which is a significant improvement but still has a ways to go.

A few notable things about their clutch stats, they're amongst the top in clutch offensive rebounds, which is an important stat. They're among the best in points allowed. They're also amongst the top in terms of limiting turnovers but near the bottom in assists, which goes with what I see on the court, which is an offence that tends to fall into predictable and safe offensive sets in the closing minutes.

Of course, the thing about clutch stats is that they don't capture performances like last night, where they tighten up the defence early in the fourth, go on a run, and by the 5 minute mark (the time when official clutch stats start) the game is already out of reach.

They are the top team in the league in 4th quarter differential, by a significant margin (+2.8, nobody else is better than +2.1). Is this an important stat? Well, consider that the next 4 teams in that measure are Miami, OKC, San Antonio, and Indiana. I can only find stats going back to 2003/04, but in that time only two other team had a 4thQ +/- better than 2.1 (Portland, with 2.5 in 2008/09, and Miami with 2.2 last year).

Of course, what really matters is how that translates into the playoffs, and that's very hard to predict. I like their ability to get a stop when they really need it, but worry about their ability to score a basket when they need it.

I'm really excited to be able to evaluate the current Raptors players in terms of their ability to perform in the playoffs. It'll give us a much better sense of where the team is at than any regular season statistic. Magic number for clinching a playoff spot down to 5.