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Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear
Its hard to believe this has slipped off the front page...
if this goes any further sideways NATO could be pulled into a war they aren't ready for...which could go nuclear
this sucks
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Well I don't think it's ever going to get to the point your thinking about, certainly not nuclear. But it could turn into a civil war type situation, with Russia aiding one side and the west aiding another.
I have a real hard time imagining what the end to this is because I'm not sure what Putin's end game is. I don't think he knows. I don't think he thought it through to be honest, he's boxed himself in a bit of a corner. There aren't a lot of scenarios that are good for him. Even if he 'gets' Crimea (any one of a few scenarios that could be called different things, but basically are the same) he has done so at great cost to his country and reputation. And that's basically the best it gets for him. I'm not sure he'd be happy with that, as it appears he is already talking about further advances into the Ukraine, and even in that scenario, he loses some face.
If nothing changes, which might be the most likely scenario, Crimea will become some sort of independent state with even closer ties to Russia. Sucks for the Ukraine, but probably better than any alternative. They will probably at least have a more unified populace after that and be free to pursue closer ties with Europe.
Though, there could still be guerrilla type fighting in Eastern Ukraine. Depends on how the different ethnic groups within the Ukraine react, and the pro Ukrainian citizens act in and around Crimea.