Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
I really like the Poirier pick over Shinkaruk: better size, better speed, better shot, and much grittier. In other words, better NHL skill set. And his progression, vs Shinkaruk's regression, is a huge deal.
Having said that, I think fans' expectations for Poirier may be a bit high. First of all, I don't think there is any chance he makes the team next year - but that really is neither here nor there at the end of the day.
Where I think expectations are overshot a bit are in his ceiling. I don't see a 1st line winger, personally. If his PPG were more 1.6 - 1.8 or so, I might have more optimism on that front, but really, I see him as a solid, two-way, 20-25 goal guy. In other words, a really good 2nd/3rd liner. But not an elite player.
Edit: which, to be clear, would be AWESOME
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It is tough to base prospects on points sometimes. Not only do you have to take into consideration if he is playing for an offensive team, or a more defensive team, but also what his linemates are. I would love to see Poirier's advanced stats and see his quality of competition numbers. Why? Let's first take a look at his progression.
Poirier's rookie season:
Hyka (18 year old) - 64 pts
Regimbald (19) - 45pts
Ouellet (20) - 40pts
Poirier (16) - 40pts
Nothing that 'outstanding'. Fairly strong rookie season to get himself on the radar for the next year's draft, but you can say 'unspectacular'.
Poirier's 2nd season (draft year):
Poirier (17) - 70pts
Hyka (19) - 54pts
Chapman (18) - 54pts
Reway (17) - 50pts
What is really interesting about this year, is that Poirier had an outstanding 2nd half. He should have been on the radar for the other teams to start paying more attention against him, and he should have started seeing an increase in quality of competition. What is interesting, is that his teammates weren't quite as strong, and the more he put himself on the 'radar' and facing better competition, the better he did. This is when he started getting noticed by scouts more and started his jump up the rankings prior to the draft. Finished off with a very strong playoff performance (again, increasing his gpg and ppg, though obviously small sample size).
Currently:
Poirier 84 pts
Reway 58 pts
Karabacek 46 pts
This is where it gets a little crazy for me. I would assume he is facing by far the best quality of competition night in and night out, with little support from his teammates. You would expect a jump in production post-draft (would be disappointing if it didn't happen), but at the same time he is making big jumps with lesser linemates, while facing better competition. The more pressure this kid faces, and the more adversity other teams send out against him, the better he does. He has been increasing his production when it matters more and/or when there is more pressure on him(2nd half of last season + playoffs, poorer quality of teammates this season + increased pressure from other teams).
He can very well just be one of those prospects taking advantage of increased minutes. However, often a good indicator of prospects who are merely taking advantage of more ice seem to get much more PP time as well. I don't have the numbers of how much PP time he gets, or how many points he gets, but this is really interesting:
6 PP goals this season (one would expect it higher for a player in his situation)
8 SHG - how does a high-level scorer manage more SHGs than PPGs? I can understand a role player, but NOT the leading scorer for ANY team.
One thing we can exclude is that Poirier's stats probably aren't too 'padded' by ample PP time (would love to get his points breakdown, as that is often very telling - i.e. the Shremp debate). For example, Gelinas (just above him in the points race in the QMJHL) has 14 PP goals.
I am not pushing the envelope saying: "this kid has top-line talent written all-over him!", but the numbers make for a compelling argument. I think it is safe to say his projection is that of a top 6 winger. I would not count on nor would I discount him being a top-line winger in the future, however. He seems to have all the tools and drive to get there - but of course he is a prospect and there is no telling how far he will develop or not.
With regards to the bolded in your post (which started off this embarrassingly long post to start with), one has to wonder if his point totals would be substantially better if he was in Mantha's shoes (Mantha 115pts, Marcotte 95, Gelinas 88, Gazola 72), or on another high-scoring team with over-agers or other top prospects to play with. One would assume his production would probably be higher, but that isn't certain.
I do think there is a chance Poirier makes the team next year, but only if he really gets in shape. His speed is way above average (which is one of the bigger obstacles), and he seems to have a very good defensive game (loads of PK time), and he plays a very gritty game (the ONLY player amongst the current top 20 in QMJHL scoring with a higher than 90 PIM - he has 127).
I don't think he is a shoe-in, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Flames either start him in the NHL next year, or if he gets called up and sticks early on. He just needs to put on a bit of size like Monahan did this past off-season. I remember Feaster explaining why Poirier was cut early on - it was because he wasn't as fit as what professionals are, so perhaps he learned and comes back "NHL-fit" next season?
I do think your projection of him being a good 20-25 goal scorer can be bang on, but the numbers
MAY be pointing towards a bit higher ceiling. Definitely a huge win if he becomes a 20-25 goal scorer though, absolutely. With prospects, you often never know until they get there, but there is lots of reasons to be excited (even overly-so) about this kid.