Its somewhat misleading when people quote polls saying Kerry is leading this or Bush is leading that. They really dont matter much in the overall scheme of things.
In the only race that matters, IE; the electoral college votes, its a very interesting competition.
Right now, Bush appears to lead by a mile, however, Kerry looks to be overtaking 2 key states and closing the gap a bunch in two others.
If the election were held today, Bush likely would win 301 electoral votes to Kerry's 237, according to a new CNN survey based on state polling as well as interviews with campaign aides and independent analysts. A candidate wins the election with at least 270 electoral votes, regardless of the popular vote.
Bush's margin appears unchanged from last week. Boosted by his performance in the Miami, Florida, debate and new questions about Bush's rationale for invading Iraq, however, Kerry looks as if he is threatening the president's lead in New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Iowa, which hold a total of 82 electoral votes. If Kerry picks up Ohio and Florida, he would lead Bush in the Electoral College, 285 to 253.
Clearly the key battlegrounds on Nov 2 will be Ohio and Florida. Again.
Its a horse race
This is just one such survey however. Maybe others show something different.