[Itse]

All this strikes me as really stupid on Putins part.

Ukraine wasn't going to push Russia out of their navy base in Sevastopol, they just don't have the political strength to do that. But more importantly, given the instability of Ukraine in the last years and the ethnography of Crimea, just throwing some money at the right politicians in Crimea would have all but guaranteed a popular vote where Crimea decides to join Russia or some other result which amounts to the same thing. All the same results, none of the fuss.

Instead, Russia has now alienated all it's allies and created a generation that will fear and loathe Russia in Ukraine, a country that is still extremely important to Russian interests in many ways. Russia spent a lot of energy trying to shoulder it's way into the G8, but is now shut out, and generally the western countries are spending their time harassing Russia left and right. And make no mistake, long term the western powers have way more pull than Russia, due to their economic importance.

Sure, you can argue that Russia can't afford to support any votes on regional autonomy because of it's own minorities, but that would be assuming that Russia somehow doesn't want to appear hypocritical.

When I look at where China and Russia are now in the world stage, I can't help but feel that Putin is yet another in a long line of failures in Russian leadership. After the Cold War Russia and China started pretty much from the same place. China is now a genuine world power, countries are rushing to lick it's boots and bending over backward for Chinese investments, all the while pouring their money into China. China has moved forward leaps and bounds in the last two decades.

In contrast, Russia is now politically as isolated as it has basicly ever been in a hundred years. Infrastructure is still crap, emigration is still a problem, life expectancy is still crap, the country is an epimological problem child, and it's still seen as the Wild East, exotic and unpredictable, by investors.

Based on it's natural resources, population size, strong cultural heritage (and the current cultural scene), geographic position and military strength Russia should be a genuine superpower. But it's not. Because while the Russian elite might be great at short term powerplays like taking Crimea (a patch of land that's useful but hardly critical), they have no real interest in longterm development of anything.

(Just my current thoughts.)