Quote:
Originally Posted by Plett25
This won't amount to anything.
Crimea will end up as a part of Russia or will stay in Ukraine. But either way, the Russian naval bases aren't going anywhere. And Putin didn't invade all of Ukraine, just the most Russian part and not coincidentally, the part that houses one of Russia's most important military installations.
Ukraine might be a little more dysfunctional now and in the near future, but was it very functional 6 months ago? Not really. Ukraine is an economic basket-case and is in need of a huge bailout... and Putin practically guaranteed that Russia will make a sizable "investment" in the Ukrainian economy under the "you break it, you bought it" terms and conditions. If Putin doesn't bail them out after invading them, he (fairly or unfairly) gets 100% of the blame for anything bad that happens in Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
So Putin gets to choose between flushing billions down the Ukrainian toilet/economy or letting it get worse and shouldering all the blame as Russia's next door neighbour goes broke and destabilizes... great choice there Vlad.
Putin's strong arm tactics haven't endeared him to the majority of Ukrainians, so in the end he has made his next door neighbour more anti-Russian than they were before. More anti-Russian and less stable... great work there Vlad.
And what will the West do? Nothing.
Not a single shot will be fired. Not a sortie will be flown. No trade war. Nothing will be done because Putin is absolutely not a threat to the West/NATO. Putin knows that Russia wouldn't stand a chance if he invaded a NATO country, so that's why he picks on not-quite western countries like Georgia and Ukraine.
Now the West/NATO trusts him even less than we did a month ago. So we'll do what we've been doing since the wall fell... we promote democracy and capitalism, and one by one, "Eastern" European countries become more and more western and less and less under Russian influence. East Germany, Poland, the Czechs, Slovakia, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all on our side now.
The iron curtain has been pushed all the way back to Russia's borders. Ukraine will eventually find its way into the western sphere, maybe without a few eastern areas like the Crimean. But Ukraine was always going to be the hardest good-bye for Russia. If I recall correctly, the Kiev area plays a pretty important role in the formation of the Russian nation/culture/people.
This is all just the final act of a play that has been going on since the Berlin Wall fell.
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Not sure I agree with what I would label an optimistic view, but view well laid out and certainly plausible.
Finns are understandably freaking out a little. The idea of expansionist Russia with an unpredictable pseudo-dictator hits some kind of a nerve even with me, and I would say I'm generally quite resistant to hysteria.
I'm sure the atmosphere is even worse in many of the previous Soviet countries.
Somewhat paradoxically I think Putin has screwed over all Russians living abroad in a major way. They're already an unpopular minority pretty much everywhere, and crap like this is not going to improve the situation. Even previously there have been serious talks about for example limiting the possibility of Russians buying land from Finland etc, and the Crimean situation gives those ideas some actual credibility. Right-wing politics are on the rise anyway in Europe, and Putin just gift wrapped some extra votes for nationalists of all kind I imagine.
If the Crimean occupation is indeed as unpopular in Russia as the poll linked here says it is, this could end up being a political disaster for Putin. While people may have been ready to forgive and forget about the billions wasted in Sochi, throwing away a new pile of billions right after it is probably going to get a lot of people in Russia thinking that maybe this guy isn't really built for the modern global politics. Especially the people who's money Putin just lost. (Although money "lost" in stocks is often easily gained back later with interest, so it's a little complicated. If you're a gambler, now might be a time to buy undervalued Russian stocks.)