Quote:
Originally Posted by worth
So what does Ukraine do today?
- Pull out as many troops from Crimea as possible to shore up defenses on main land Ukraine
- Stand and fight a battle they will surely lose against Russian forces in Crimea
- Hand over all weapons and surrender all military personnel on Crimea
It is probably very difficult to get out of Crimea at the moment and unlikely the Ukrainian forces will be able to do a hasty retreat. |
Combine 1 and 2, Troops will be pulled back, they can try to engage the Russians, but make no mistake the 6000 troops in the Ukraine are a trip wire and nothing else. If one Russian boy gets splattered, you'll see at least one army group on the move by the end of the day from the Russian Western Military district, and they'll shoot for the whole country.
There will be Ukraine soldiers who are onside with the Russians (it would be like testing the loyalty of French Canadian Soldiers if Quebec Separated), they'll go over to the Russian side of things.
The landmine issue isn't an issue, simply because Russian's are pragmatists in this case, they're kill multipliers and they slow down enemy militarizes, and they're great in terms of preventing shore landings if it comes down to it.
Beyond the G-8 suff and some sanctions, there's nothing that's going to happen, Obama isn't going to go to the Ukraine's defense, and I guess I can't blame him, this isn't the 80's cold war U.S. Military, while its still formidable its not the Fight two wars, a holding action and a major Peace keeping mission at the same time U.S. Military. Its more along the lines of fighting one war and one holding action U.S. Military and its going to get drawn down even further then that.
Even George Bush wouldn't be crazy enough to do anything on the Military side.
The only thing that would make sense would be to send in arms to the Ukraine through their Nato Allies, and some "training personal' I think the Russian's used to call them volunteers. Maybe slip some special forces groups in to help with intelligence gathering.
But at the end of the game, expect a major part of the Ukraine to simply be folded into the loving embrace of Mother Russia.