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Originally Posted by Zulu29
I believe (just my opinion) that Russia will annex Crimea. It is very important strategically for Putin and has a sympathetic populace. As far Putin doing a show of force I don't see the point, what's the end game for Putin? Everyone already knows Russia is the strongman in the region. He has nothing to gain from flexing his military muscle then backing off. No, Putin is looking at this situation and how it will benefit him and the Russian federation down the road. The situation in Ukraine was an ideal excuse for Putin to seize Crimea on the basis of protecting the citizenry and military installations there.
He's an extremely intelligent and calculating man, everything he is doing here has been in the works for awhile I'd imagine.
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It's only speculations at this point and my guesses are as good, as anyone else. However, I do not think that this whole thing was set up to annex Crimea. The Fleet Base agreement was in place till 2043. Ukraine was fairly stable and was paying gas bills. There was a lot of business going on between two countries. There was no point for Putin and Russia to send Ukraine into this anarchy just for the sake of annexing crimea. Even if Ukraine would peacefully enter EU - they still had to respect the Fleet agreement and Ukraine would still be getting paid $100M a year for the lease. Crimea has no oil, gas or anything of interest, aside from the base. If the plan was to create this anarchy and annex Crimea - which I doubt - Russia will lose way more than it would gain.