Quote:
Originally Posted by Beatle17
OK I will answer you (and I may be a little more informed about drug intake than you think). I found the following in another thread and found it an interesting take:
"Zyrtec D contains 120mg of pseudoephedrine per pill. The recommended maximum dosage is 2 pills per 12 hours, so 240mg per max dosage.
The half-life of pseudoephedrine is 4-8 hours and elimination time from the body is 5-6 half-lives, so pseudoephedrine leaves your system in about 20-48 hours assuming you don’t have a pre-existing condition that effects your blood cycling.
The body is roughly 7.4% blood, such that a 70kg person likely has 5.2L of blood, so Nicklas Backstrom, at 95kg (though he’s got more muscle mass than an average person, so the estimate is likely on the high end), probably has at most 7L of blood (probably a bit less).
Half-life calculations are simple…
N_t = N_0 * (1/2) ^ (t / t_h)
where
N_t = amount remaining
N_0 = initial amount
t = time
t_h = halflife
So, using that formula and assuming worst-case elimination time and long-lasting pseudo, within a 48 hour span, if Backstrom had taken the recommended dosage, he would have in his blood at the HIGH-END of estimates… 240mg (immediate dosage before slovenia game and subsequent test + 85mg (12 hours prior) + 30mg (24 hours prior), + 11mg (36 hours), + 4mg (48 hours) = 370milligrams on the high-end estimate assuming PROPER dosage.
370mg/7000mL of blood = .05286 milligrams per mL which is 52.86 MICROGRAMS/mL. The olympic limit is 150 micrograms/mL.
Even assuming Backstrom had average blood for an average 70kg male, he should have at that point just 72 micrograms/mL of blood.
I’m not trying to say he cheated, but the numbers are pretty staggering. To get 190 micrograms per mL, he would have had to have been taking nearly quadruple the dosage if properly scheduled 12 hrs apart.
Even if he was maybe taking 2 of them every 4 hours…"
Debate the math, not the poster.
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Even if all the math checks out (I'm not saying it doesn't) your argument hinges on the bolded part.
He had 190 mg per mL in his blood.
But that's not a certainty. In order for a player to be confirmed in violation of the IOC drug policy they must be tested twice with two samples collected each time. Both of these tests are to happen within a 48 hour period.
That didn't happen.
Without establishing how much pseudoephedrine was in his system, meeting IOC testing standards, it cannot be stated his results weren't an anomaly with a false positive due to an error(s) in the lab.
Therefore the following is likely the answers:
1) Backstrom probably took too much pseudoephedrine
2) The IOC fata'ed up the testing and doesn't meet their own threshold of proof. (If they fata'ed up one part, you can't reasonably exclude them fata'ing up elsewhere).
Because the testing was fata'ed up, you can't punish the player. Give Backstrom his medal.