Quote:
Originally Posted by calgARI
Knowing Stanstead College quite well and having coached at that level for a long time, it is still beyond comprehension to me how anyone can project a player from there with such high confidence to select in the first round. People questioned drafting guys like Turris, Zajac, Chucko out of the BCHL and even that is questionable in my mind to project (it is a level below US College) but that league is way way better than where Jankowski was picked out of.
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You make a very good point from where he was drafted from. Stanstead (as you sound much more familiar with than anyone else on this board) doesn't get scouted at all, correct? Can you think of any other instance where a player became listed by a scouting service at the midway point of his draft eligible season? Can you think of any other prospect that started drawing 50 NHL scouts to every game?
I understand what you are saying completely. However, could Jankowski not be a very good example of an exception in this case, considering the amount of investment a lot of teams were spending on him by watching his games regularly?
Todd Button mentioned exactly the same thing you did at (or shortly after) the draft. I am paraphrasing here, but it was something like:
"Not ever scout or even scouting team can properly assess a player like Jankowski considering where he was playing. His league is so far down from the standard, that it becomes tough to gauge if he really is that good of a prospect, or if he just looks better than he really is because of the talent around him. It takes a lot of experience and time in accurately scouting a player in this situation. We had every scout take a good look at him, and we were at every game from the beginning when we first started scouting him. We put in our work, and we really believe his is this good (or perhaps he said he projects this good?? Can't recall exactly)." <-- Paraphrasing from memory
I don't think at this point anyone can say with certainty that Jankowski will bust, or that he will be a depth player, or that he will even be an elite center. He is such a unique case. Now it also comes down to Jankowski playing from such a low standard of hockey, to arguably the highest in the entire NCAA, on a very defensive team where he is learning his role as a center with all the required positioning and defensive responsibilities that it entails. Is his lower production a symptom of him not being a good prospect, or a symptom of him playing on an offensively challenged team, or symptom of him being far from physically developed, or whatever other legitimate reason that goes along with this unique case?
The Hockey News also asked (20?) scouts from (20?) NHL organizations to re-rank the 2012 draft, and Jankowski was #25 on their consolidated list. This is an external scouting 'mini-report' that I believe at least goes an inch to validate what Todd Button was saying about him. Add in Million's remarks today on twitter and copied on this thread about '2 NHL Sources' confirming that they like him as a prospect - you are getting to see outside sources reaffirming this pick.
As for Todd 'towing the company line' - this would be a perfect time to distance himself from Weisbrod and Feaster, wouldn't you think? He could say the "we support Jankowski and still consider him a prospect with potential" but then temper it with "He has not developed as quickly as we envisioned" or "he has some big holes in his game that he hasn't started closing off to project him further", or whatever slight he could say without trashing the pick itself. For a guy who's job MAY be on the line this year, and rumors of Burke not liking the pick (without ever really addressing it, however), this would have been a very good time for Button to at least distance himself a little bit. The fact he chose not to leads me to believe that he really believes in this kid.
I have been very 'pro' Jankowski and I still applaud that pick as it COULD end up being the most important pick that the Flames have made since any one of their amazing 80's picks. However, I have NO IDEA on the likelihood of it panning out. I am still hoping (and have been vocal) that the Flames should take Reinhart if given the opportunity this draft, as the only way you can really get a #1 center is to draft one, and they are rarely ever found outside the top 5 picks. Is Jankowski one of those rarities that was so difficult to scout that other teams didn't know how to value him? Maybe the Flames over-valued him? I don't really think that there is any evidence at this point to say with certainty that he is going to bust, as he is progressing in the right direction, and he is such a unique case. I do think the odds were stacked against him, but he is (so far) moving past them (in my opinion).
Last season I wondered if Jankowski could keep his head above water in the NCAA. Going nearly .5ppg (or whatever it was - think it was slightly higher) shows to me that he did more than just keep his head above water.
This season, I wondered if he would actually be a competent center given his lack of experience playing the position at a high-level, and how underdeveloped he was physically. Seems like more than competent at the NCAA level thus far.
Those two things thus far make me believe he has not earned the 'bust' label, or any other label except "Legitimate prospect with size and skill". Considering scouts - both internal and external to the Flames' organization - seem to think he is progressing nicely, I will have to go by their word.